TLDR
- SPCX is trading near $153, down 24% from its post-IPO peak of $200
- Bank of America set a $235 price target but critics say the valuation is hard to justify
- Goldman Sachs ($205), Morgan Stanley ($300), and Citi ($200) all have Buy ratings on the stock
- The bearish case centers on unproven orbital data centers, Starship reusability risks, and AI profitability questions
- The average Wall Street price target is $245.96, implying 61.6% upside from current levels
SpaceX (SPCX) stock is trading near $153 as of July 9, wiping out all gains since its June 12 IPO. The stock hit a peak of $200 before pulling back 24%, and the debate over where it goes from here is getting loud.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Wall Street’s big banks came out swinging with high price targets right after the IPO. Goldman Sachs initiated with a Buy and a $205 target. Morgan Stanley set the bar even higher at $300. Citi’s John Godyn issued a Buy at $200, citing SpaceX’s long-term growth story. All three banks were underwriters on the IPO.
Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein added a $235 target, but the methodology raised eyebrows. His team used a discounted cash flow model stretching nearly 20 years into the future — out to 2045. Standard DCF models typically run five to ten years. That kind of extended horizon tends to signal a valuation that’s hard to anchor in the near term.
The Bull Case
Goldman’s Eric Sheridan argued that SpaceX has built dominant positions across three businesses: launch services (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Starship), Starlink satellite internet, and AI infrastructure. He believes those markets could be worth trillions over the next five years.
Epstein described a “flywheel” effect: launch enables space applications, applications generate cash, and that cash funds more infrastructure. The average analyst price target across 22 Buys, four Holds, and one Sell sits at $245.96 — implying 61.6% upside from current levels.
The Bear Case
Not everyone is buying it. CFRA’s Keith Snyder has a Sell rating and a Street-low target of $115, arguing the stock already prices in the successful execution of multiple complex projects at once.
Morningstar’s Nicolas Owens is even more bearish, valuing SPCX at $63. He says the IPO price only makes sense under the most optimistic “Moonshot” scenario — one that requires a rapidly reusable Starship and commercially viable orbital data centers.
Those orbital data centers are a central part of the AI thesis, and they’re drawing serious pushback. A former NASA engineer writing under the pseudonym Taranis laid out in detail why the concept is deeply problematic — pointing to heat dissipation, radiation, and communications delays as major barriers. SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son added that power savings from space-based data centers would be eaten up by launch costs, maintenance, and latency.
SpaceX’s S-1 lays out a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion of that tied to AI. That’s a heavy bet on a market where margins are already getting squeezed. OpenAI — the frontrunner in AI models — reported a net loss that jumped from $5.09 billion in 2024 to $38.53 billion in 2025, according to leaked audited financials verified by the Financial Times.
SpaceX is currently renting excess AI capacity to Anthropic and recently signed a deal with Google (GOOGL). That excess capacity situation hints at limited demand for its own AI models.
Low Earth orbit congestion adds another layer of risk. A 2026 research paper found that the “CRASH Clock” — a measure of collision risk — has dropped from 164 days in 2018 to just 2.5 days in 2026.
The consensus remains bullish at Strong Buy on TipRanks, but the range of price targets — from $63 to $300 — tells you just how wide the disagreement really is.
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