TLDR
- SpaceX (SPCX) IPO’d at $135 on June 12, hit an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, and now trades around $145
- The stock is down 35% from its post-IPO peak but still above the $135 offer price
- SpaceX acquired AI coding tool Cursor for $60B in an all-stock deal at the peak of its rally
- Morgan Stanley initiated with Overweight and a $300 price target; Goldman Sachs started with Buy at $205
- First public earnings report expected in early August, coinciding with the end of the employee lock-up period
SpaceX (SPCX) priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 12, raising roughly $75 billion in the largest IPO on record. On its first day of trading, the stock opened at $150 and closed at $160.95. Retail investors put a record $118 million into the stock on day one, according to Vanda Research.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The rally didn’t stop there. By June 16, the stock hit an intraday high of $225.64, briefly pushing SpaceX’s market cap past Amazon and Microsoft. That same day, SpaceX announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the company behind AI coding assistant Cursor.
The timing of that deal raised eyebrows. By using its own stock at the peak of the rally, SpaceX effectively purchased Cursor at minimal real cost. “It showed a level of market sophistication that almost no other issuer has,” said Samuel Kerr of Mergermarket.
CEO Elon Musk added fuel to the fire on June 14, saying SpaceX could hit $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. For context, the company posted $18.67 billion in revenue in 2025 and reported a net loss of $4.94 billion.
The Rally Fades
The stock began pulling back in late June. On June 22, SpaceX launched a bond offering seeking at least $20 billion to fund AI and computing infrastructure. Despite the positive news, the stock fell more than 16% that day to close at $154.60.
Two index additions — FTSE Russell in late June and Nasdaq-100 on July 7 — drew some institutional buying. Around 200 ETFs had established positions by end of June. But neither was enough to reverse the slide.
When Starlink cut prices in the Memphis area, the stock dropped 8% in a single session. It underscored what some analysts say is a tension between SpaceX’s AI story and its actual revenue base, which still comes primarily from rocket launches and satellite services.
By July 10, SPCX was trading at $145.30 — down 35% from its peak and roughly 18% below its first-day close.
What’s Next
The IPO quiet period ended July 7, triggering a round of Wall Street initiations. Morgan Stanley started coverage with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. Goldman Sachs initiated with a Buy and a $205 target.
Not everyone is bullish. Seeking Alpha analyst Bohdan Kucheriavyi called the $2 trillion valuation “unsustainable,” pointing to revenue expected below $40 billion this year and upcoming insider selling once the lock-up period ends.
That lock-up expiry is expected to coincide with SpaceX’s first public earnings report, anticipated in early August. Employees who received stock as compensation will be able to sell, potentially adding downward pressure.
CFRA analyst Keith Snyder expects the stock to dip further, to around $115, based on the company’s current financials. At that price, SpaceX would be valued at roughly $1.5 trillion.
For investors who bought at the IPO price, they’re still in the green. Those who chased the rally in the first week are not.
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