TLDR
- Gold is trading above $4,400 an ounce after its best weekly gain since January
- Weak U.S. jobs data has cut the odds of a September Fed rate hike to below 50%
- Investors are watching U.S. CPI data due Wednesday and producer prices Thursday
- Middle East uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz is adding safe-haven demand
- Silver, platinum, and copper are also rising alongside gold
Gold prices are holding above $4,400 a troy ounce on Monday as investors wait for key U.S. inflation data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,354.51 an ounce in early trading, while U.S. gold futures climbed to $4,414.40. The moves follow gold’s best weekly performance since January.
Prices hit a seven-week high on Friday after U.S. jobs data came in weaker than expected. The economy shed jobs in July, and prior-month employment gains were revised sharply lower.
That weak labor data changed how traders are reading the Fed’s next steps. Markets now put the odds of a rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting at below 50%, down from a greater-than-even chance just days ago.
Lower interest rates tend to support gold because they reduce the cost of holding an asset that pays no yield. The softer jobs data pushed traders toward bullion.
Inflation Data in Focus
The next big test comes Wednesday, when the U.S. releases consumer price index data. Producer price figures follow on Thursday. Softer readings could push rate hike odds even lower.
Key Events This Week:
1. July Existing Home Sales data – Tuesday
2. OPEC Monthly Report – Wednesday
3. July CPI Inflation data – Wednesday
4. July PPI Inflation data – Thursday
5. July Retail Sales data – Friday
6. August MI Consumer Sentiment data – Friday
It's a big week…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 9, 2026
Analysts at Saxo Bank said the recent rally was driven by weaker U.S. economic data, rising fiscal debt concerns, a softer dollar, and ongoing demand from central banks and Asian investors.
If inflation data comes in cool, expectations for a less restrictive Fed policy could build further, giving gold another potential lift.
Middle East Tensions Add to Safe-Haven Demand
Geopolitical risk is also keeping gold elevated. Iran said it is close to a final deal with Oman to create new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. But Tehran says Washington still needs to meet several conditions before the waterway can reopen.
🇮🇷🇺🇸🇴🇲 Iran says the Hormuz deal is in "final stages"…
but has a shopping list longer than a UN resolution.
Demands include: sanctions lifted, compensation paid, military threats ended, naval blockade gone, AND frozen assets released.
So basically… they want everything.… pic.twitter.com/mAZnw0a7B7
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) August 10, 2026
Uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz is a supply risk for global oil markets. Rising oil prices could complicate the inflation picture and weigh on hopes for Fed easing, creating a mixed backdrop for gold.
Silver rose 1.3% to $64.36 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.5% to $1,757.64.
Copper also moved higher. London Metal Exchange copper futures edged up 0.6% to $14,126.33 a ton. U.S. copper futures rose 0.7% to $6.635 a pound.
ING analysts said copper has rallied sharply on expectations of U.S. import tariffs, with traders rushing metal into the country and tightening physical markets. They warned that any policy disappointment could test that tariff premium, with prices back near record highs.
Gold remains above $4,400 heading into a week that could shift the Fed outlook depending on how inflation data lands Wednesday.
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