TLDR
- Mizuho reiterates Outperform rating with a $320 price target on Oracle ahead of its Q1 FY2027 earnings on September 10
- Oracle trades at $158.78, down 54% from its 52-week high of $345.72; InvestingPro flags it as undervalued
- Analysts forecast 34% revenue growth for fiscal 2027, driven by Oracle Cloud Infrastructure expansion
- Virginia Retirement Systems purchased a new $34 million stake in Oracle in Q2; institutional investors own 42.44% of the stock
- Average analyst price target sits at $261.68 with a “Moderate Buy” consensus across 40 analysts
Oracle (ORCL) is heading into its fiscal Q1 2027 earnings on September 10 with a lot riding on the results. The stock currently trades at $158.78, well off its 52-week high of $345.72.
Mizuho reiterated an Outperform rating and kept its $320 price target in place. The firm expects Oracle to beat consensus estimates, pointing to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure as the main driver.
Approximately 1 gigawatt of new OCI capacity is expected to come online in Q1. That compares to roughly 1.2 gigawatts delivered across all of fiscal 2026, which is a fast ramp.
Analysts are forecasting 34% revenue growth for fiscal 2027. Oracle posted 17.35% revenue growth over the past twelve months, so the bar is being raised considerably.
Earnings Preview
In its most recent quarterly results from June 10, Oracle reported EPS of $2.11, beating the $1.96 consensus by $0.15. Revenue came in at $19.18 billion, ahead of estimates of $19.10 billion, and up 20.6% year over year.
Oracle has guided Q1 2027 EPS in the range of $1.72 to $1.76, with full-year FY2027 EPS guidance of $8.05. Options markets are pricing in around a 10% move in either direction following the earnings release.
Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $210, though it kept an Equal Weight rating. Jefferies lowered its target to $290 but held onto its Buy rating, citing concerns around data center execution and financing.
Citigroup reaffirmed a Buy rating in late August. CLSA initiated coverage with a Hold and a $145 target. Of the 40 analysts covering the stock, 28 have a Buy rating, nine Hold, two Strong Buy, and one Sell. The average target is $261.68.
Institutional Activity
Virginia Retirement Systems took a new position in Oracle during Q2, buying 232,487 shares valued at approximately $34.07 million. Several other funds also added to their positions during the period.
Institutional investors and hedge funds collectively own 42.44% of Oracle. Corporate insiders own 40.90%, though Vice Chairman Jeffrey Henley sold 400,000 shares in late June at an average of $159.16, cutting his stake by 50%.
Oracle pays a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, or $2.00 annualized, representing a 1.3% yield. The payout ratio stands at 34.31%.
Mizuho flagged that investors may be underestimating progress on bring-your-own-hyperscaler and prepaid structures, which help reduce balance sheet pressure.
Key things to watch on September 10 include OCI growth, remaining performance obligations, capital expenditure clarity, and any mention of equity issuance tied to the reported $20 billion funding plan.
Mizuho pointed to the October 28 Investor Day as the next major catalyst after earnings.
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