TLDR
- Oracle reports fiscal Q1 2027 earnings after market close Thursday, with Wall Street expecting $1.74 EPS on $19.14 billion revenue
- ORCL stock is down 17% in 2026 and more than 50% below its September 2025 peak, trading at around $157.52
- The company’s backlog hit $638 billion, up 363% year-over-year, but roughly half is tied to a single customer, OpenAI
- Free cash flow has been negative for five straight quarters, with capex guided at $70-95 billion for fiscal 2027
- Options markets imply an 11% post-earnings swing, with calls outpacing puts, signaling bullish sentiment
Oracle is set to report fiscal first-quarter 2027 results after the bell Thursday, and the numbers couldn’t come at a more pressured moment. The stock has lost 17% in 2026 and sits more than 50% below its September 2025 peak, when it surged 35% after a blowout earnings report.
ORCL was trading at $157.52 at the time of writing Thursday, down roughly 2.54% on the day.
Wall Street expects adjusted earnings of $1.74 per share on revenue of $19.14 billion, which would represent around 28% year-over-year growth. Management has guided for total cloud revenue growth of 58% to 64%, and Jefferies analyst Brent Thill sees Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) accelerating to as much as 115%, up from 93% last quarter.
Mizuho Securities, which rates the stock Outperform with a $320 target, expects Oracle to beat consensus. The firm points to roughly 1 gigawatt of new OCI capacity coming online this quarter, nearly matching the entire fiscal 2026 buildout.
The Backlog Question
Oracle’s remaining performance obligations rose to $638 billion, up from $553 billion last quarter and up 363% year-over-year. That number is eye-catching, but there’s a catch. Roughly half of that backlog reportedly ties to a single customer: OpenAI.
Paul Meeks of Freedom Capital Markets put it plainly: “The bad thing is that, to fund their ambition they’ve now had free cash flow burn five quarters in a row.”
Oracle posted negative free cash flow of $23.7 billion in fiscal 2026, even as operating cash flow hit a record $32 billion. Capex more than doubled to $55.6 billion. Fiscal 2027 net capex is guided at $70 to $95 billion. Mizuho expects free cash flow to turn positive in fiscal 2029.
Investors will also be watching for any update on unconfirmed reports of workforce cuts of 7,000 to 10,000 employees.
Options Traders Lean Bullish
Despite the stock’s rough 2026, options traders are positioning for a big move to the upside. Call open interest has piled up well beyond put open interest heading into the print.
IG Group’s Julia Spina highlighted specific September 11 weekly contracts. Puts roughly $18 below the stock price were trading near $2.34, while calls a similar distance above were priced closer to $3.90. Traders are paying a premium for upside exposure, flipping the typical pattern where downside protection costs more.
ORCL shares are up about 15% over the past week, and the broader big tech earnings cycle has helped the mood. Amazon jumped more than 15% after its last report, and Microsoft rose around 15.5% on strong bookings growth.
Oracle’s average post-earnings move over the past three quarters has been around 9.5%. Options markets are currently pricing in roughly an 11% swing once results land Thursday.
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