TLDR
- XRP trades at $1.39 after losing more than 51 percent since the downtrend began in October 2025.
- XRP reached a 2026 low of $1.12 before buyers defended the former breakout zone as support.
- XRP previously surged to an all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025 after breaking a seven-year symmetrical triangle.
- Analysts state that XRP must hold above the $1.17 upper Gaussian Channel band to keep the $13 target active.
- A break below $1.17 could send XRP toward the mid Gaussian Channel level near $0.73.
XRP continues to trade under pressure as sellers maintain control of the market. The token now changes hands at $1.39 after months of steady losses. Market data shows that price must hold above $1.17 to keep projections toward $13 active.
The downtrend began in October 2025 and extended into early February 2026. XRP price has lost more than 51% since the slide started in the fourth quarter. Price action now moves sideways within a bearish structure.
XRP Breakout and Rally to $3.66
XRP broke above a seven-year symmetrical triangle in late 2024. The breakout followed years of capped price movement under descending resistance. As a result, the token shifted its long-term structure.
The rally accelerated after November 2024 and pushed XRP to $3.66 in July 2025. That move marked a new all-time high for the token. However, sellers regained control soon after the peak.
The price then entered a steady decline that erased much of the prior gains. XRP has dropped 61% from the July 2025 high. It later reached a 2026 low of $1.12 in early February.
Chart analyst Chart Nerd described the move as a structured backtest. He said the former resistance zone has turned into support. He added that buyers reacted at $1.12 and defended the area.
Let's Break Down $XRP's Technical Structure And Remove All Of The Circulating Noise. Data Over Emotion 🫡
1) This multi-year fractal shows a clean and decisive breakout in late 2024 through prior multi-year descending resistance leading to new ATHs
2) The decline that has… pic.twitter.com/nqvGojUnYO
— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) February 23, 2026
Gaussian Channel Level at $1.17 Remains Critical
Market data shows XRP dropped to the upper regression band of the Gaussian Channel at $1.17. This level now aligns with structural support on the chart. Chart Nerd called $1.17 the key line bulls must protect.
He stated, “As long as XRP stays above $1.17, the short-term parabolic outlook remains.” He added that holding this level keeps projections toward $8 and $13 active. The analyst based his view on historical channel behavior.
If XRP breaks clearly below $1.17, the price could target the mid-Gaussian Channel near $0.73. That level sits within the prior multi-year triangle structure. A move there would place the price back inside the old formation.
Chart Nerd explained that past retests of the mid-channel marked major bottoms. He said each retest preceded strong upward expansions. However, he maintained that $1.17 acts as the guardrail for recovery.
He stated, “If XRP loses $1.17, traders should prepare for a deeper move.” He added that much of the recent damage has already occurred. XRP continues to trade at $1.39 at the time of reporting.
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