TLDR
- TD Cowen slashed its price target on Adobe from $400 to $325, maintaining a “hold” rating
- The consensus analyst rating is “Hold” with an average price target of $383.08, though targets range wildly from $302 to $500
- Adobe beat Q4 estimates (EPS $5.50 vs. $5.40; revenue $6.19B vs. $6.11B) but the stock still trades around $282 — below its 200-day moving average of $325
- Q1 2026 earnings are due March 12; analysts expect EPS of ~$5.87 and revenue of ~$6.275 billion
- Adobe’s Digital Media ARR is forecast at ~$19.44B, up from $17.63B a year ago
Adobe is heading into its Q1 2026 earnings report on March 12 under pressure. The stock opened at $282.43 on Tuesday — well below its 200-day moving average of $325 and a long way from its 52-week high of $444.54.
TD Cowen made that picture a bit grimmer this week, cutting its price target from $400 to $325 while keeping a “hold” rating. That new target still implies about 15% upside from current levels, but the move reflects growing caution among analysts.
TD Cowen wasn’t alone. Wells Fargo also trimmed its target, dropping it from $420 to $405, though it kept an “overweight” rating. Citigroup cut to $315 and called Q1 likely “uneventful.” Weiss Ratings went further, downgrading Adobe from “hold” to “sell.”
Not everyone is down on the stock. RBC kept its “outperform” rating with a $430 target. DA Davidson still carries a $500 price target with a “buy.” HSBC set a $302 target back in February.
The overall analyst picture: 1 strong buy, 10 buys, 11 holds, 4 sells. Average price target sits at $383.08 — about 35% above where the stock is trading right now.
Adobe’s last earnings report, from December, was actually solid. The company posted EPS of $5.50, beating the $5.40 estimate. Revenue came in at $6.19B versus the $6.11B forecast. Year-over-year revenue growth was 10.5%.
For Q1 2026, Adobe guided for EPS of $5.85–$5.90. The Street is expecting roughly $5.87 per share and revenue of about $6.275B.
Subscription revenue remains the core of the business, with analysts penciling in around $6.09B. Digital Media revenue is seen at $4.65B and Digital Experience at $1.54B.
Digital Media ARR in Focus
One metric investors will watch closely is Digital Media ARR. It’s expected to land near $19.44B for the quarter, up from $17.63B a year ago. That would reflect continued demand for Adobe’s subscription tools.
Michael Burry recently took a new position in Adobe, which drew attention. Adobe also expanded its partnership with Major League Baseball to deliver AI-driven fan experiences — a commercial win for its AI tools.
On the inside, CFO Daniel Durn sold 1,646 shares on January 27 at an average of $294.85, totaling about $485,323. Insiders overall own just 0.20% of the stock. Institutional investors hold 81.79%.
What to Watch on March 12
Options traders are pricing in a large move around the earnings print. With the stock already down on the year and trading below key moving averages, guidance and commentary on AI monetization — specifically around Firefly, Acrobat, and Express — will likely drive the reaction more than headline numbers.
Adobe set full-year FY2026 guidance at EPS of $23.30–$23.50. The company has a market cap of $115.94B, a PE ratio of 16.90, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.53.
Results are due after the close on March 12, 2026.
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