TLDR
- Airbnb reports Q1 earnings on May 7
- Wall Street expects EPS of $0.30 (up 25% YoY) and revenue of $2.62 billion (up 15.4% YoY)
- Options traders are pricing in a ~7.85% move in either direction
- Oppenheimer upgraded ABNB to Outperform with a $180 price target, citing World Cup demand and AI-driven search
- UBS kept a Neutral rating, raising its price target to $153, flagging near-term Middle East uncertainty
Airbnb reports Q1 earnings on May 7. ABNB stock is up just 2.3% this year, lagging as the travel sector deals with the Iran war fallout and cost-of-living pressure on consumers.
Wall Street expects EPS of $0.30, a 25% jump year-over-year. Revenue is forecast at $2.62 billion, up 15.4% from the same quarter last year.
Options traders are pricing in a move of about 7.85% in either direction when results drop. That’s a decent swing either way.
Q4 gave investors reason for optimism. Revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $2.8 billion, while gross booking value hit $20.4 billion, up 16%. It was Airbnb’s best growth quarter in over two years.
That momentum is expected to carry into Q1. Analysts estimate Nights and Experiences Booked will reach 156 million, up from 143 million a year ago. Gross Booking Value is forecast at $27.85 billion, compared to $24.52 billion previously.
Airbnb credited pricing changes — including total price upfront, simplified fees, and flexible cancellations — for lifting conversion rates in Q4.
Analyst Takes
Oppenheimer upgraded ABNB to Outperform on Monday, setting a $180 price target. Analyst Jed Kelly pointed to hotels, a reserve-now-pay-later product, and AI-powered search as drivers of future revenue growth.
Kelly flagged Manhattan as a specific opportunity in hotels, where available supply is roughly 3 million nights below 2019 levels due to tighter regulation.
He also highlighted World Cup demand as a near-term tailwind, with rentals in host cities already running ahead of 2025 levels.
Oppenheimer sees Airbnb as better placed than traditional online travel agencies to handle travel disruptions from oil supply shocks, given its more flexible inventory model.
UBS analyst Stephen Ju took a more cautious view. He raised his price target to $153 from $149 but held his Neutral rating.
Ju said Middle East conflict is expected to weigh more on consumer confidence and travel demand in Q2 and Q3. He added that geopolitical and macro concerns are viewed as largely priced into the stock at current levels.
What Analysts Expect Overall
On TipRanks, ABNB holds a Moderate Buy consensus based on 15 Buy, 11 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings. The consensus price target sits at $151.75, implying about 9.28% upside from current levels. The highest price target on the Street is $185.
Management will likely face questions about whether the Iran war has hit demand — whether through traveler hesitancy or higher jet fuel costs affecting airlines and routes.
Airbnb has a mixed track record on beating estimates, so Wednesday’s print will be closely watched.
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