TLDR
- Alcoa (AA) rose as much as 11.5% Monday after Iranian missile strikes hit major Middle Eastern aluminium facilities over the weekend.
- Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain were among the targets, with Bahrain cutting production by roughly 19%.
- The Middle East produces around 9% of global aluminium, putting 4–5 million metric tons of exports at risk, per ANZ.
- LME aluminium benchmark surged 5% to around $3,492 per ton, close to a four-year high.
- Century Aluminium (CENX) gained ~11%, Kaiser Aluminium (KALU) rose 4.7%, and Constellium (CSTM) was up ~4%.
Alcoa (AA) was trading around $63.80, up roughly 10% on the session.
Iranian missile strikes on two of the world’s largest aluminium producers over the weekend sent US aluminium stocks sharply higher on Monday, as markets priced in a potential supply crunch.
Alcoa led the charge, climbing as much as 11.5% in early trading. Century Aluminium jumped 11.2%, Kaiser Aluminium rose 4.7%, and Constellium gained around 3.5–4%.
The targets were big ones. Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain — both state-backed producers — took damage on Saturday, according to The Wall Street Journal. Aluminium Bahrain has already cut output by roughly 19%.
Iran’s retaliatory attacks cause damage and injuries in the Gulf, with Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) reporting strikes on their facilities.
Al Jazeera’s Zein Basravi reports from Dubai. pic.twitter.com/UQB2vqMOkM
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) March 29, 2026
The Middle East is not a sideshow in this market. The region accounts for about 9% of global aluminium production, and ANZ estimates that four to five million metric tons of exports are now at risk.
Aluminium forward contracts in New York were up around 4% at $3,319 per metric ton early Monday, per FactSet. The London Metal Exchange benchmark went further, jumping 5% to approximately $3,492 per ton — close to a four-year high. Prices are up 10% since the day before hostilities began.
“The Iranian smelter attacks have done some serious damage to the supply backdrop,” wrote David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research in a Monday note.
Supply Shock Fears Drive the Move
Alcoa had actually been under pressure since the Iran conflict began. The stock was down 5.9% over the prior month, trailing a broader S&P 500 that had itself fallen 7.4% over the same period, weighed down by concerns about slowing industrial demand and higher energy costs.
Monday’s move flipped that narrative. Instead of demand fears, the market is now focused on supply. When 9% of global production is suddenly at risk, the calculus changes quickly for US-based producers who are not exposed to the same geopolitical risk.
The rally reflects a straightforward supply-demand shift: fewer tons coming out of the Gulf means tighter global inventories and higher prices — and that’s good for US producers’ margins.
Broader Sector Gains
The move wasn’t limited to Alcoa. The aluminium sector broadly caught a bid, with Kaiser Aluminium up 3.4–4.7% depending on the session point, and Constellium rising around 3.5–4%.
LME aluminium approaching a four-year high is the key number to watch here. That level hadn’t been seen in years, and it signals just how seriously the market is treating this supply disruption.
As of Monday morning, some Gulf facilities had already begun cutting output, and the full extent of the damage had not yet been assessed.
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