TLDR
- Alphabet reports Q1 2026 earnings on Wednesday, April 29, after market close
- Options traders are pricing in a 5.63% move in either direction — well above the 4-quarter average of 1.44%
- Wall Street expects revenue of $106.89 billion, up ~19% year-over-year
- EPS is forecast at $2.63, down ~6.4% from the year-ago quarter
- Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney has an Outperform rating and $400 price target on GOOGL
Alphabet is set to report its first quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, April 29, after the closing bell.
Wall Street is expecting revenue of $106.89 billion, which would represent roughly 19% growth compared to the same period last year.
Earnings per share are forecast at $2.63 — a drop of about 6.4% from the year-ago quarter, reflecting rising costs tied to AI infrastructure and data center expansion.
Last quarter, Alphabet posted revenues of $113.8 billion, up 18% year on year, beating both revenue and EPS estimates. The bar heading into this print is high.
Options markets are pricing in a 5.63% swing in either direction following the earnings release. That’s notably larger than Alphabet’s average post-earnings move of just 1.44% over the past four quarters — a sign that traders see real uncertainty here.
GOOGL stock has rallied 78% year-to-date and is up 118% over the past year. The stock was up around 1.72% heading into Tuesday’s session.
Analysts covering Alphabet have largely held their estimates steady over the past 30 days, suggesting no major surprises are expected — though Alphabet rarely misses on revenue.
What Investors Are Watching
Beyond the headline numbers, investors will be focused on Gemini AI integration updates and the health of YouTube’s ad business.
YouTube has shown some mixed signals recently, with Mahaney flagging potential softness in that segment heading into the print.
Google Cloud is seen as a bright spot. Strong demand and a growing backlog could deliver upside, according to Mahaney’s note ahead of earnings.
On margins, expectations are tempered. Higher data center costs and continued hiring in AI and Cloud are expected to limit margin expansion, even if top-line growth holds up.
Search remains the core engine. Ad spending trends are described as steady to improving, which should provide a solid floor for the quarter.
Analyst Sentiment
Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney reiterated an Outperform rating and a $400 price target on GOOGL ahead of the print.
Mahaney expects a modest beat, with revenue and ad sales likely to land at or slightly above Street estimates.
Wall Street overall carries a Strong Buy consensus on Alphabet, based on 26 Buy ratings and five Holds.
The average price target sits at $387.68, implying about 12.57% upside from current levels.
Alphabet’s Q1 2026 results are due Wednesday, April 29, after market close.
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