TLDR
- Amgen’s GLP-1 drug MariTide showed nearly 20% weight loss in trials, competitive with Eli Lilly’s Zepbound
- MariTide could become a once-quarterly injection, improving on the current once-monthly profile
- Truist raised its price target on AMGN to $325 from $319, maintaining a Hold rating
- Truist forecasts Q1 2026 revenue of $9.18 billion, well above consensus of $8.58 billion
- Analysts see potential for AMGN to reclaim its record high of $388, an 11% gain from current levels
Amgen has gained 25% since April 2025, slightly trailing the S&P 500’s 29% return over the same period. The stock trades at a forward P/E of around 15 times earnings, near the upper end of its five-year range, with a market cap of $186.4 billion.
Amgen’s GLP-1 candidate MariTide is drawing increasing attention from analysts and investors. Trial participants showed nearly 20% weight loss, putting it in striking distance of Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which delivers weight loss in the low 20% range. MariTide also outpaces Lilly’s oral pill Foundayo, which showed roughly 12% weight loss in trials.
At the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference in January, Amgen said MariTide could evolve into a once-quarterly injection. That would be a step up from its current once-monthly profile and a meaningful edge over Zepbound’s weekly dosing schedule.
Amgen doesn’t need to dominate the GLP-1 market to move the needle. JPMorgan analysts forecast the total GLP-1 market could hit $200 billion by 2030. If Amgen captures just $5 billion in MariTide revenue, that alone would boost total sales by around 13%, based on analyst forecasts of $37.8 billion in full-year 2026 revenue.
Phase 3 trial data for MariTide is expected in early 2027. As that date approaches, analysts typically raise their revenue estimates for a drug, shifting from conservative “risk-adjusted” figures to higher projections.
Truist Lifts Price Target, Eyes Q1 Beat
Truist Securities raised its price target on AMGN to $325 from $319 this week, keeping a Hold rating. The firm expects Q1 2026 revenue of $9.18 billion versus Wall Street consensus of $8.58 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $5.24 against consensus of $4.77.
Truist’s Q1 estimates are above consensus for key drugs including Repatha ($874M), Prolia ($878M), Evenity ($598M), and Tezspire ($487M). The firm also raised its long-term estimates for Krystexxa after the drug received strengthened patent protection running to 2040.
Truist raised the probability of success for MariTide, citing a stronger commercially viable profile in obesity treatment.
Strong Core Business Backs the Case
Beyond GLP-1, Amgen’s core business is holding up. Q4 sales beat expectations, and earnings came in nearly 12% above forecasts. Management has topped earnings estimates in 17 of the last 20 quarters. Total revenue is expected to grow just under 3% in 2026, with several new drugs in early sales stages.
Amgen recently refinanced $4 billion in debt at lower interest rates. That limits future cost increases, meaning any revenue boost from MariTide could flow more directly into earnings growth.
Cantor Fitzgerald holds a Neutral rating with a $350 price target. William Blair reiterated an Outperform rating following positive Phase 3 results for TEPEZZA, Amgen’s thyroid eye disease drug, which hit a 77% proptosis response rate versus 19.6% for placebo.
The record high for AMGN stands at $388, hit earlier this year. That’s roughly 11% above current trading levels.
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