TLDR
- Arthur Hayes predicts the Bitcoin bull cycle may last until mid-2026 with Fed rate cuts.
- Hayes expects government money printing to push more liquidity into Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin has ranged since hitting $124K, while the S&P 500 and gold hit record highs.
- Hayes says BTC could reach $200K as capped supply meets rising global liquidity.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has predicted that the Bitcoin bull cycle could extend until 2026, supported by Federal Reserve rate cuts and potential government spending. His comments arrive as debate grows over whether Bitcoin will maintain its historical four-year cycle or be shaped more by macroeconomic forces.
Hayes argued that Bitcoin is not nearing the end of its bull market but instead is in the middle of the cycle. He said the combination of interest rate cuts and money printing could extend the rally far beyond previous expectations.
Hayes Links Bitcoin Bull Cycle to Fed Rate Cuts
Hayes said he expects the Bitcoin bull cycle to continue into 2026 if the U.S. Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates. He projected that the Fed may maintain a rate-cutting cycle through mid-2026, fueling Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
He added that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could come under pressure from Trump to implement deeper cuts. Lower rates, Hayes explained, would inject liquidity into the economy, and “a significant portion of that liquidity will flow into Bitcoin.”
Economists have forecast a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, with more expected later this year. Hayes said such a policy environment would be supportive of Bitcoin, extending the current bull cycle well beyond typical cycle timelines.
Money Printing Seen as a Driver of Bitcoin Growth
In addition to rate cuts, Hayes pointed to government spending and money printing as significant factors in Bitcoin’s outlook. He predicted that Trump would look for ways to inject liquidity into the economy if he secured the office.
Hayes stressed that, unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million. “Liquidity from money printing is positive for Bitcoin, since Bitcoin is fixed in supply,” he said. This scarcity, according to him, ensures Bitcoin remains attractive when governments expand the money supply.
His view contrasts with that of trader Peter Brandt, who recently suggested the Bitcoin bull market might peak this month. Brandt’s outlook was based on past cycles, but Hayes dismissed this model, saying that macroeconomic conditions matter more than fixed patterns.
Bitcoin Compared to the S&P 500 and Gold
Bitcoin has moved sideways since reaching a new all-time high of $124,000 last month, while the S&P 500 and gold both hit new records. This divergence has raised questions about whether Bitcoin’s peak has already occurred.
Hayes, however, said this was not the case. He pointed out that governments are only beginning to print more money, which could push Bitcoin higher. He added that Bitcoin remains the best-performing asset since its launch and still has room for growth.
Hayes also said his decision on when to exit the market would depend on global conditions rather than Bitcoin’s past four-year cycles. He argued that liquidity from central banks and governments is the most essential factor in determining the bull cycle’s duration.
Hayes Forecasts Bitcoin Could Reach $200,000
Looking forward, Hayes said Bitcoin could climb to $200,000 if liquidity continues to increase into 2026. He believes the combination of Federal Reserve cuts and government spending programs will sustain the Bitcoin bull cycle much longer than expected.
“Governments are starting to print more money, and that means there is still considerable upside for Bitcoin,” Hayes said. He reiterated that the Bitcoin bull cycle is only at its midpoint and may continue for two more years.With central banks easing monetary policy and governments increasing liquidity, Hayes predicted the Bitcoin bull cycle could extend to 2026, far beyond traditional expectations.
