TLDR
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says a prolonged US conflict with Iran could push the Federal Reserve to cut rates and print money
- He points to a pattern since 1985 where every major US Middle East military campaign was followed by Fed easing
- Hayes cited the Gulf War, post-9/11 wars, and the 2009 Afghanistan surge as examples
- Despite his long-term bullish view on Bitcoin, he advises waiting until the Fed actually cuts before buying
- Bitcoin was trading around $66,200 at time of publication, down roughly 47% from its all-time high
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, published an essay on March 2 arguing that US military involvement in Iran raises the odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts and money printing.
"iOS Warfare" argues that the longer Trump lingers in Iran, the higher the likelihood of the Fed printing money to support the Pax Americana war machine. And ultimately $BTC number go up.
Stay safe out there fam.https://t.co/Ku3IRzCr2B pic.twitter.com/it3SRxKnFW
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 2, 2026
Hayes says this would be good for Bitcoin.
His argument is based on a pattern he says has repeated since 1985. Every US president in that time has launched military action in the Middle East, and the Fed has followed with some form of monetary easing.
He pointed to three specific examples. During the 1990 Gulf War, the Fed cut rates in November and December of that year even as oil-driven inflation was still present.
After the September 11, 2001 attacks, then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan ordered an emergency 50-basis-point rate cut. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that followed came with an extended easing cycle.
During the 2009 Afghanistan surge under President Obama, rates were already at zero and the Fed was already running quantitative easing.
Hayes argues Trump’s involvement in Iran follows the same script. He says Iranian regime change has been a goal of US policymakers across both parties since 1979, which gives the Fed political cover to ease in support of the effort.
Over the weekend, the US and Israel conducted airstrikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. President Trump pledged to continue the campaign.
Hayes Urges Caution Before Buying
Despite his bullish thesis, Hayes is not telling investors to buy now. He says the right move is to wait for the Fed to actually cut rates or begin printing money before adding Bitcoin or altcoin exposure.
“The time to back up the truck and buy Bitcoin and high-quality shitcoins is immediately after the Fed cuts rates and or prints money,” he wrote.
He also acknowledged uncertainty about how long Trump will stay committed to the conflict. He called the “prudent action” to wait and see.
Where Bitcoin Stands Now
Bitcoin was trading around $66,200 at the time Hayes published his essay. That is down nearly 30% year-over-year and about 47% below its all-time high of $126,000, which it hit in October 2025.
The coin has fallen for five straight months. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in extreme fear territory.
Markets reacted calmly to the Iran news overall. US stock futures opened down only marginally on Monday. The S&P 500 was down less than 1%.
BREAKING: Oil prices officially drop back below $70/barrel, now up just +3.5% on the day.
Oil markets have now erased nearly 70% of their opening move higher.
This is NOT World War 3. Ignore the noise. pic.twitter.com/Q5nIg86uzw
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 2, 2026
Oil prices spiked early but erased nearly half of their gains. Macro newsletter The Kobeissi Letter noted the futures open was “not anywhere near WW3.”
Crypto social media did see a spike in “World War 3” mentions over the weekend according to data firm Santiment, though the volume was lower than during the June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict.
Bitcoin was down approximately 1.9% on the day at time of writing.
