TLDR
- Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said AI demand “shows no signs of slowing,” sending ASML up 5.1%
- Rasgon didn’t name ASML directly, but investors connected the dots through the chip supply chain
- Bank of America kept its Buy rating and €1,598 price target after Asia investor meetings
- BofA sees ASML as “prime beneficiary” of broader EUV adoption and rising memory CAPEX
- BofA’s €52 billion revenue estimate for 2028 may be conservative; a capital markets day is expected later this year
ASML Holding jumped over 5% on Monday after two separate bullish analyst calls put the semiconductor equipment maker back in focus.
The move started with a note from Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. He didn’t mention ASML by name — but the market filled in the blanks fast.
Rasgon’s note focused on the broader AI chip landscape, arguing that demand “currently shows no signs of slowing” despite the sell-off in AI stocks this year.
He flagged Broadcom (AVGO) as a standout, suggesting it could quadruple its 2025 profits to over $20 per share. Nvidia (NVDA) could grow earnings from under $5 last year to $12 or more by 2027. ASML stock was trading around $1,369 at the time of writing, up roughly 3.9% on the day.
Why ASML Benefits From Nvidia and Broadcom’s Gains
Here’s the chain: more AI chip demand means more revenue for chip designers like Nvidia and Broadcom. That flows down to foundries like TSMC, which need to expand capacity. And expanding capacity means buying more machines — ASML’s machines.
Rasgon also noted ongoing supply constraints from insufficient chip production. That’s exactly the kind of environment where demand for ASML’s lithography equipment holds firm.
ASML’s valuation isn’t cheap at 46.5 times trailing earnings. But analysts expect 19% annual earnings growth over the next five years, and if Rasgon’s AI demand thesis holds, that growth could justify the price.
BofA Sees Upside Through 2027 and Beyond
Separately, Bank of America analyst Didier Scemama published his own note after meetings with investors across Asia.
His key takeaway: the memory cycle is “likely to remain strong through at least 1H27E.” That supports ASML’s order book well into next year.
BofA laid out three catalysts. First, high-NA EUV adoption is expected in 2028, driven by TSMC and SK Hynix. Tool availability hit 80% at end of 2025 and should reach 90% by end of 2026. Scemama models 15 high-NA tool deliveries in 2028.
Second, low-NA EUV capacity is expected to be reached by Q4 2027, with 22 tool deliveries that year. BofA thinks ASML could announce an EUV capacity increase in 2026.
Third, BofA expects ASML to hold a capital markets day later this year and sees the company potentially raising its 2030 revenue guide to between €53.7 billion and €65.4 billion.
BofA currently models €52 billion in 2028 revenue and says that estimate is “increasingly conservative” versus consensus.
BofA kept its Buy rating and unchanged price target of €1,598, calling ASML its top pick in the sector.
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