TLDR
- BBVA launches €14.8B hostile bid for Sabadell as shares outpace offer value.
- Sabadell stock surge leaves BBVA’s €14.8B takeover bid looking less attractive.
- BBVA pushes €14.8B bid for Sabadell amid pricing gap and shareholder doubts.
- Hostile €14.8B BBVA bid faces uphill battle as Sabadell shares beat offer.
- BBVA risks failure in €14.8B Sabadell takeover without sweetening its bid.
BBVA has officially initiated a €14.8 billion hostile takeover offer for Banco Sabadell, escalating tensions in Spain’s banking sector. The move follows a prolonged regulatory process that delayed the formal launch since BBVA first proposed the deal 16 months ago. Sabadell shareholders now face an October 7 deadline to respond to the offer, with the outcome expected by October 14.
Share Surge Puts Pressure on BBVA Offer Terms
Since April 2024, Sabadell shares have significantly outpaced BBVA’s stock, exceeding the offer’s implied value. As a result, analysts say BBVA’s initial 30% premium over Sabadell’s April 29 share price has reversed to a 9% deficit. BBVA insists it will not raise the offer, though it retains the legal right to do so until five days before the deadline.
This pricing gap creates doubt about shareholder acceptance, especially among retail holders, who own nearly half of Sabadell’s stock. With BBVA targeting 50.01% control, analysts suggest it may need to increase the offer to ensure success. Some brokers believe BBVA could raise the bid by up to 34% while preserving most of its €900 million synergy target.
Spanish Government Conditions Delay Full Merger
Although BBVA received approval from key regulators, the Spanish government imposed a three-year freeze on any full legal merger. This condition means BBVA and Sabadell must operate separately despite any successful acquisition. As a result, BBVA postponed its synergy goals by a year, moving the €900 million annual target to 2029.
This delay impacts the financial timing of the deal and complicates BBVA’s integration strategy. Nevertheless, BBVA’s leadership maintains that the deal remains strategically sound and offers long-term domestic growth. The combined entity would become Spain’s second-largest bank by assets, behind only Caixabank.
Shareholder Landscape Adds Complexity to BBVA’s Path
Sabadell’s shareholder base is fragmented, and the top 20 investors are largely international institutions. BlackRock, its largest shareholder, holds only around 7%, limiting coordinated resistance or support. BBVA also received permission from U.S. regulators to lower the acceptance threshold to 30%, a sign it may settle for partial control.
Despite BBVA’s public refusal to revise the terms, market activity suggests expectations of a sweeter bid remain. Jefferies estimated BBVA might enhance the offer by €1.5 billion to match market pricing. Sabadell’s board, which previously rejected a similar bid, is reviewing the current proposal and will issue a recommendation soon.
BBVA continues to stress the complementary nature of both banks, pointing to cost efficiencies and overlapping tech systems. However, resistance from Sabadell’s leadership and tepid retail sentiment signal a challenging path ahead. The coming weeks will reveal whether BBVA will adjust its offer or proceed with a partial stake under tightened government constraints.
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