TLDR
- USDC supply will grow from $76B to $220B by 2027, capturing 33% of the market.
- Circle’s USDC transactions surged 120% in 2025, reflecting growing demand.
- The GENIUS Act boosts USDC by favoring U.S.-based stablecoin issuers.
- Circle’s regulatory compliance and partnerships position USDC for market leadership.
Bernstein analysts predict a sharp rise in Circle’s USDC stablecoin supply, forecasting it will nearly triple by the end of 2027. This surge will allow USDC to capture approximately one-third of the global stablecoin market. The projection stems from Circle’s strong compliance approach, its market-leading partnerships, and recent regulatory changes in the U.S. that favor domestic stablecoin issuers. The market for stablecoins is expected to grow significantly in the coming years.
USDC Supply to Surge By 2027
Bernstein’s analysts estimate that USDC’s supply will increase from its current $76 billion to $220 billion by 2027. This growth is expected to elevate its market share from 29% to 33%, cementing its position as a leading stablecoin.
Circle’s compliance-first approach is considered a primary factor in its success, as more investors and platforms are opting for regulated, dollar-backed tokens like USDC. The company’s partnerships with major exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance, and OKX provide liquidity and distribution advantages, which analysts say are difficult for competitors to replicate.
With strong integration across 28 blockchains and a consistent increase in transactions, USDC is gaining traction among a variety of platforms. Circle facilitated $3 trillion in USDC transactions during the first half of 2025, marking a 120% growth from 2024. Analysts believe the company’s expanding infrastructure and partnerships are key factors that will support this growth.
Regulatory Changes Benefit Circle’s USDC
The passage of the GENIUS Act in July 2025 has given Circle an additional boost. The new law establishes a federal framework for stablecoins, specifically “payment stablecoins,” and limits the participation of foreign issuers.
The act defines these coins as digital cash rather than securities or deposits, which benefits U.S.-based issuers like Circle. According to Bernstein, Circle’s existing practices of maintaining full cash and U.S. Treasurys backing, as well as regular reserve disclosures, place it in an ideal position to comply with new regulations and attract institutional players seeking a compliant stablecoin solution.
Circle’s regulatory compliance and transparency have positioned it as the largest regulated stablecoin in the world. This status is expected to continue to attract new partnerships with banks and payment providers who need a stable and regulated infrastructure. Bernstein notes that USDC’s competitive advantage lies in its robust regulatory structure, which is expected to support growth as new market participants enter the stablecoin space.
Strong Growth in Stablecoin Market
The total market for stablecoins is projected to grow to $670 billion by the end of 2027. Circle’s share of this market, driven by its expanding USDC supply, would amount to $220 billion. Analysts predict that the increased use of stablecoins will be fueled by growing demand in crypto capital markets and use cases like cross-border payments and remittances. As more companies and institutions turn to stablecoins for their digital payment needs, USDC’s share of the market is expected to grow significantly.
Despite competition from other stablecoins like Tether’s USDT and PayPal’s PYUSD, Circle is well-positioned to maintain its dominance. New entrants to the stablecoin market, such as Tether’s USAT, face challenges in establishing liquidity and integrating with exchanges. Bernstein believes that Circle’s early market lead, strong partnerships, and regulatory standing will continue to differentiate it from competitors.
Outlook for USDC and Circle’s Growth
Looking further ahead, Bernstein’s analysts predict that Circle’s revenue will grow at a compound annual rate of 47% through 2027. This is driven by a projected 71% annual growth rate in USDC supply over the same period.
As Circle continues to scale its operations and infrastructure, the company is expected to benefit from new revenue streams beyond float income, such as fees from cross-chain transfers and payments networks.
The analysts also foresee a broader trend where stablecoins will transform financial services and digital payments. By 2035, the total supply of stablecoins could reach $4 trillion, with USDC maintaining around 30% of that market share. Circle’s strategic investments in products like the Circle Payments Network and its blockchain, Arc, are expected to play a key role in sustaining its competitive position in the long term.
