TLDR
- Bitcoin is trading above $108K, showing a 2% decline over the past week.
- Ethereum trading volume rose 33% ahead of the US CPI release.
- Traders see a 77% chance of a US-China tariff deal by November 10.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.5% on renewed US-China export concerns.
Crypto and equity markets in Asia began Thursday in a cautious mood. Bitcoin and Ethereum are holding in tight ranges as traders await the upcoming U.S. inflation report. Meanwhile, signs of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are providing some calm after recent volatility. Investors are watching closely as major data and policy shifts loom on the horizon.
Crypto Markets Hold Steady Amid CPI Anticipation
Bitcoin is trading around $108,164, with minor gains since Monday but still showing a 2% weekly decline. Ethereum is hovering near $3,815. The market has entered what analysts at QCP Capital describe as a “narrow-range equilibrium” ahead of Friday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.
This CPI print is one of the few major economic data points that have not been delayed by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. QCP Capital noted that CPI is the “singular anchor” for shaping policy expectations. A 0.2% increase, if confirmed, could support risk assets by reinforcing a soft-landing narrative and improving liquidity outlooks.
Volatility remains elevated. However, dips in crypto are finding support as the dollar weakens and real yields ease. A stronger-than-expected CPI could renew pressure on both crypto and equity markets by altering interest rate forecasts.
Ethereum Sees Activity Spike, Faces Key Support Test
Ethereum has seen a 33% jump in trading volume, reflecting renewed interest from traders ahead of the CPI release. However, a $650 million transfer by the Ethereum Foundation triggered $700 million in profit-taking and long liquidations. This activity left markets divided on Ethereum’s short-term direction.
Analysts are watching the $3,470 support level. If it holds, Ethereum could see a push toward $5,000. If it breaks, prices may fall toward $2,850. The market remains cautious, with upcoming inflation data likely to influence short-term moves.
U.S.-China Trade Sentiment Shows Signs of Easing
Polymarket traders now see a 77% chance that the U.S. and China will reach a new tariff agreement by November 10. The probability of a 100% tariff imposition by the Trump campaign has dropped to 16%. Traders are interpreting this shift as a sign of restraint and a move away from full confrontation.
In a note, QCP Capital stated that the upcoming meeting between former President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could yield a “pragmatic” outcome. Trump recently stated, “the USA wants to help China, not hurt it,” which supports the view of easing tensions.
The reduced trade risk has helped calm both crypto and equity markets after last week’s large sell-offs, including a $20 billion liquidation wave and Binance collateral mispricing issues. Markets now appear cleaner, with macro traders resetting positions ahead of Friday’s data.
Gold Falls, Nikkei 225 Drops Amid Renewed Export Concerns
Gold prices are retreating from record highs. Futures fell 0.3% to $4,097.80 an ounce following a 5.7% drop on Tuesday. Investors are booking profits, though analysts believe ongoing central bank buying and rate cut expectations may offer continued support to the metal.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.5% after reports that the Trump administration may tighten export rules to China. This has revived concerns about trade restrictions between the two major economies. Other Asia-Pacific markets also showed weakness as traders reacted to the renewed uncertainty.
Outlook Hinges on Friday’s Inflation Data
Markets are now waiting for Friday’s CPI reading, which could decide the next move for crypto and traditional assets. While some calm has returned after recent turbulence, the direction remains uncertain. A softer inflation print could support the current market tone, while a surprise could bring fresh volatility.
