TLDR
- Bitcoin may follow gold’s record-breaking trajectory, with analysts setting a mid-term target of $155,000
- Gold recently hit a new all-time high of $3,357 per ounce, while Bitcoin is trading around $85,000
- Historical data suggests Bitcoin typically follows gold’s momentum with a 100-150 day lag
- Despite being down approximately 10% year-to-date, Bitcoin’s current drawdown is only 33% from its ATH, the shallowest correction in its history
- Both assets are being viewed as “global neutral reserve assets” amidst macroeconomic uncertainty
The cryptocurrency market is seeing renewed optimism as Bitcoin appears ready to follow gold’s recent record-breaking rally, according to several market analysts. While gold continues setting new all-time highs, reaching $3,357 per ounce on April 17, Bitcoin has been consolidating in the mid-$80,000 range after experiencing a modest drawdown from its January peak.
Trading at roughly $84,694 at press time, Bitcoin is showing signs of breaking out of a consolidatory wedge pattern that closely resembles gold’s price action before its recent surge. Despite being down about 10% year-to-date, analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s prospects for the coming months.
BTC Price
Historical Patterns Point to Bitcoin Following Gold
Market data reveals a consistent pattern: when gold makes major moves, Bitcoin typically follows suit within a specific timeframe. Joe Consorti, head of growth at Theya, points out that Bitcoin follows gold’s directional bias with a lag of 100-150 days.
“When the printer roars to life, gold sniffs it out first, then Bitcoin follows harder,” Consorti explained in a recent market analysis.
This pattern has been observed in previous market cycles. In 2017, Bitcoin rallied to $19,120 after gold witnessed a 30% hike a few months earlier. Similarly, gold reached a new high near $2,075 in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, which preceded Bitcoin’s surge to $69,000 in 2021.
Based on these historical trends, analysts expect Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs between Q3 and Q4 of 2025. Some projections are even more optimistic, with anonymous Bitcoin proponent apsk32 suggesting a potential price target as high as $400,000 during a parabolic phase in the latter half of 2025.
Stronger Resilience During Market Volatility
Bitcoin’s performance during recent market volatility has caught the attention of on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. In their latest “The Week Onchain” newsletter, they described both Bitcoin and gold as “hard assets” that have weathered the current macroeconomic storm well.
While gold surged to new heights, Bitcoin initially sold off to $75,000 alongside risk assets but has since recovered, trading back up to $85,000. This price action contrasts with previous market cycles where Bitcoin typically experienced much deeper corrections.
According to Glassnode’s data, Bitcoin’s recent drawdown of approximately 33% from its all-time high is the shallowest among past cycles. Previous bull markets saw much deeper corrections, with the 2012-14 bull market experiencing a 72% drawdown.
“In prior macroeconomic events like last week, Bitcoin has typically experienced greater than -50% sell-offs in such events, which highlights a degree of robustness of modern investor sentiment toward the asset during unfavorable conditions,” Glassnode noted, referring to the ongoing US-China trade tensions.
Maturing as a Safe Haven Asset
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz recently told CNBC that Bitcoin and gold are “key indicators of financial stewardship” amid global macroeconomic uncertainty. He described the current economic situation as a “Minsky Moment” for the US economy, where Bitcoin thrives in market turbulence.
This perspective is gaining traction as both assets are “increasingly entering the center stage as global neutral reserve assets,” according to Glassnode’s analysis. The firm suggests that investors are viewing both gold and Bitcoin as hedges against inflation and economic instability.
Cryptollica, a trading and analytics account, shared a chart highlighting the striking similarities between the price actions of gold and Bitcoin. Both assets formed a macro-bottom around early 2023, followed by a rejection at the range top in early 2024. Gold eventually broke out in the following months, while Bitcoin lagged slightly.
GOLD vs. BITCOIN 🏅
Bitcoin midterm target: 155K $ pic.twitter.com/tAEngVLlIg
— Cryptollica⚡️ (@Cryptollica) April 16, 2025
Based on these patterns, Cryptollica has set a mid-term price target of $155,000 for Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin’s all-time high stands at $108,786, recorded earlier this year in January.
Several potential tailwinds could support this bullish outlook, including a declining US Dollar Index (DXY) and all-time highs in the global M2 money supply. These factors have fueled Bitcoin bull runs in the past.
However, while Bitcoin shows signs of maturing as a reliable asset during times of geopolitical uncertainty, institutional investors appear to be taking profits. This is evidenced by recent outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
