TLDR
- Bitcoin is trading between two major supply clusters, creating a decision point
- Bitcoin price declined below $96,500 and is struggling to rise above $95,000
- Short-term holder Realized Price at $93,364 serves as a key support level
- BTC faces resistance at $94,750 with a bearish trend line forming on hourly charts
- The cryptocurrency dropped to $93,570 before attempting recovery
Bitcoin is currently facing a critical moment in its price action as on-chain data shows the cryptocurrency trading between important supply zones. The leading digital asset has been experiencing downward pressure after failing to maintain levels above $96,500.
Recently, Bitcoin started a downside correction that took it below several key support levels. The price declined under $96,200 and $95,500 before even dropping below $94,500.
The cryptocurrency reached a low of $93,570 during this correction. Since then, it has been attempting to recover some of these losses but continues to face significant resistance.
On-chain analyst Checkmate highlighted that Bitcoin is currently at what could be described as a “decision point.” This observation is based on the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which shows two massive supply clusters around current price levels.
In my view, it's pretty important that Bitcoin clears this price zone in the near-term.
We're sitting right in the middle of a decision point, and all it will take is one big red or green candle from here to convince people of a lower high, or bull continuation, respectively. pic.twitter.com/1XLhMOO14K
— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) May 4, 2025
This metric reveals what portion of Bitcoin’s supply was last purchased at different price points throughout its history. The data indicates dense supply zones both above and below Bitcoin’s current trading range.
The lower supply zone could potentially act as support since investors who bought in this area are still in profit. They may defend this level to prevent further price drops.
Conversely, the upper supply wall might function as resistance. Investors who purchased Bitcoin at these higher prices might sell their holdings to break even if the price approaches their entry point.
Bitcoin is also trading near an important macro on-chain support level known as the short-term holder Realized Price. According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, this level sits at approximately $93,364.
Bitcoin is flirting with the Shoprt Term Holder Cost Basis from above 👀
STH Realized Price: $93,364 pic.twitter.com/hQl1V9izWE
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) May 5, 2025
The short-term holder Realized Price represents the average cost basis for investors who bought Bitcoin within the past 155 days. Historically, this metric has served as a boundary between bullish and bearish market trends.
Technical Analysis Shows Challenging Path Ahead
On the technical side, Bitcoin is trading below the 100 hourly Simple Moving Average, which typically signals bearish momentum in the short term. A bearish trend line has formed with resistance near $94,750 on the hourly chart.
If Bitcoin can clear the $94,750 resistance zone, it might face additional hurdles at $95,300 and then at $95,750. The latter coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent decline from $97,885 to $93,570.
A successful break above $95,750 could potentially open the path toward $96,800. Any sustained momentum beyond this point might push Bitcoin toward the $98,000 level.
However, if Bitcoin fails to overcome the $94,750 resistance, it could resume its downward trajectory. In such a scenario, immediate support would be found near $93,750, followed by more substantial support at $93,500.
If these support levels fail to hold, the price might drop toward $93,200 or even test the $92,500 zone. The main support level sits at $91,200, which would likely attract significant buying interest.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $94,000, down approximately 1.5% over the last 24 hours. The price has been gradually declining over the past few days as bulls struggle to regain control of the market.
The cryptocurrency’s immediate future appears to hang in the balance. As Checkmate noted, “all it will take is one big red or green candle from here to convince people of a lower high, or bull continuation, respectively.”
This current price action is occurring after Bitcoin reached new all-time highs earlier this year. Market participants are watching closely to determine whether this is merely a correction in an ongoing bull market or the beginning of a more extended downtrend.
For now, Bitcoin remains caught between competing forces, with on-chain data suggesting that any major move could trigger a cascade of buying or selling pressure depending on which direction the price breaks.
