TLDR
- Bitcoin slipped 0.4% to around $70,475 on Tuesday as ceasefire reports between the U.S. and Iran sent mixed signals to markets.
- Bernstein analysts say Bitcoin has bottomed, calling the recent pullback a sentiment reset, not a fundamental breakdown.
- Oil above $85–$90 is fueling inflation fears, pushing investors into cash and away from risk assets like BTC.
- U.S. 5-year Treasury yields hit a 9-month high of 4.10%, and the odds of a July rate hike jumped to 20.5%.
- Bitcoin has outperformed gold by 25% since the Iran conflict began in late February, according to Bernstein.
Bitcoin dropped 0.4% on Tuesday to around $70,475, retreating from the previous session’s gains. The move came as conflicting reports about a possible U.S.-Iran ceasefire left investors unsure of what comes next.
Israeli Channel 12 reported that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were working on a ceasefire plan involving a 15-point framework. The New York Times also reported that the U.S. had sent a formal proposal to Iran.
But Iran’s parliament speaker denied any talks were taking place, calling the reports false. That back-and-forth kept markets in a reactive mode, responding to headlines rather than confirmed facts.
The "one-month ceasefire" situation:
Israeli media is now reporting that US envoys Witkoff and Kushner are preparing for a one-month ceasefire with Iran.
This ceasefire will be utilized to "hold talks" as the war nears the end of its 4th week.
But, will Iran accept?
It has…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 24, 2026
President Trump said on Monday that he was delaying strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days after what he called “very good and productive” talks. Oil prices still rebounded sharply on Tuesday amid continued uncertainty.
Macro Pressure Weighs on Bitcoin
Oil crossing $90 has pushed inflation expectations higher. Bond market data showed the implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike by July surged from 0% to 20.5% in just one week.
U.S. 5-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.10%, a nine-month high. The S&P 500 hit its lowest level in over six months on Monday, with investors moving aggressively into cash.
Major tech stocks including Google, Meta, and IBM have dropped 10% or more over the past six weeks. The U.S. national debt also crossed $39 trillion, adding to consumer cost-of-living pressures.
Arthur Azizov, founder at B2 Ventures, noted: “There is a growing sense in the market that traditional assets are becoming more speculative than crypto, which is not a positive signal.”
Bernstein: Bitcoin Has Found Its Bottom
Despite the pressure, Bernstein analysts said they believe Bitcoin has bottomed. Led by Gautam Chhugani, the team wrote: “We believe Bitcoin has found its trough and is now heading higher.”
They attributed the recent decline to a sentiment reset rather than any breakdown in fundamentals. They also pointed out that Bitcoin has outperformed gold by 25% since the Iran conflict started in late February.
Bernstein maintained its outperform rating on Strategy with a $450 price target. The firm, led by Michael Saylor, holds roughly 3.6% of all Bitcoin supply, valued at around $53.5 billion.
On Polymarket, traders are broadly betting the war ends by June 2026.
$BTC dropped below the $68,000 level today.
Momentum is looking weak as global markets sell-offs are accelerating.
If Bitcoin loses the $67,500 support zone from here, a new low will happen. pic.twitter.com/G85XiwTmwR
— Ted (@TedPillows) March 23, 2026
Bitcoin retested the $67,500 support level on Monday. Analysts say the $66,000 level remains a key area to watch if inflation and rate concerns continue.
