TLDR
- Bitcoin entered December challenging a decade-long pattern where red Novembers always led to bearish Decembers, but 2025’s market structure shows different momentum.
- Open interest dropped from $94 billion to $60 billion, creating a cleaner market base while spot inflows continued.
- BlackRock CEO Larry Fink revealed sovereign wealth funds bought bitcoin during its recent dip below $90,000 as part of long-term strategies.
- Bitcoin spot ETF inflows have introduced constant structural buying pressure, changing traditional four-year halving cycles.
- Technical analysis shows $3 billion in short positions would liquidate at $96,000 and over $7 billion at $100,000.
Bitcoin entered December 2025 with a statistical challenge it has never overcome. Every time November closed in the red, December followed with bearish price action. This year appears different.
The cryptocurrency’s price moved back above its monthly rolling volume-weighted average price levels. This signals controlled distribution and trend adoption on higher timeframes.
Open interest fell from $94 billion to $60 billion. This drop normalized the market without stopping spot inflows. The reset created a foundation for potential continuation.
Liquidity clusters have shifted position. Deep liquidity moved from November’s downside near $80,000 to upside levels. Currently, $3 billion in short positions would face liquidation at $96,000. Over $7 billion in shorts would close at $100,000.
Institutional Buying During Price Decline
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink disclosed that sovereign wealth funds accumulated bitcoin during recent price drops. The funds bought as prices fell into the $80,000 range.
“They’re establishing a longer position and then you own it over years,” Fink said at the New York Times DealBook Summit. “It’s not a trade, you own it for a purpose.”
Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company and Luxembourg’s sovereign wealth fund have previously disclosed investments in spot bitcoin ETFs. The buying during the dip below $90,000 shows long-term positioning rather than short-term trading.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has drawn billions in assets since its early 2024 launch. The fund has become the asset manager’s most profitable exchange-traded fund.
Cycle Structure Changes
Analysts argue the traditional four-year bitcoin cycle no longer fully explains current market structure. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted the four-year cycle exists but doesn’t align cleanly with time-based expectations anymore.
Every #Bitcoin Cycle Rhymes, but not by exact dates
The #Bitcoin Cycle is one of the core layers of investment dynamics within the Web3 ecosystem. Quite often, it's the 4-year cycle that bases the thesis of anyone's investments in Bitcoin.
It's interesting to note that there… pic.twitter.com/pzjqvJTHa0
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 3, 2025
Spot bitcoin ETF inflows have introduced constant structural buying pressure. This accelerates price discovery and raises bitcoin’s effective floor compared with earlier cycles.
Van de Poppe said this cycle resembles an extended liquidity phase similar to mid-2016 or late 2019. Risk assets strengthened during those periods despite uneven macroeconomic data.
The taker buy-sell ratio near 1.17 shows urgency in positioning. Market analyst EndGame Macro said it reflects aggressive buying but not necessarily sustainable accumulation.
M2 velocity has flattened, signaling the broader economic engine may be losing momentum. This creates a setup typical of late market-cycle phases where markets stretch higher while the economy quiets.
Fink emphasized bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against government debt and inflation. He framed the asset as protection against currency debasement rather than speculation.
Bitcoin trades at $92,035 as December begins, with technical and institutional factors suggesting this month’s performance may break from historical patterns driven by spot ETF flows and sovereign wealth fund accumulation.
