TLDR
- Bitcoin dropped below $76,000 after the Fed held interest rates at 3.5–3.75%
- FOMC minutes cited Middle East tensions as a source of “uncertainty”
- Trump rejected Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before nuclear talks
- U.S. military strikes on Iran remain on the table, adding pressure to BTC
- Analyst Ted Pillows says $79,000–$80,000 is the key level BTC must reclaim
Bitcoin dropped below $76,000 on Wednesday following two major developments: the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, and President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal.
The Fed kept the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75%. The FOMC minutes pointed to “uncertainty” driven by events in the Middle East as a key reason to hold and wait.
BREAKING: The Fed is no longer expected to cut interest rates in 2026 after today's Fed decision.
The odds of the Fed cutting interest rates this year just fell to a new low of 44%.
For the first time since 1992, four Fed members dissented today's decision. pic.twitter.com/eBUCbTNBkF
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 29, 2026
Bitcoin initially fell to an intraday low of $74,937 after the minutes were released. That put it just below the 20-day simple moving average of $75,664, a level traders had been watching closely.
Hyblock CEO Shubh Varma called it “the usual sell the news reaction after the FOMC.” He added that BTC recovered to pre-announcement levels within hours, pointing to the global bid-ask ratio spiking to 0.3 — one of its highest readings — as evidence of underlying demand.
Analyst Ted Pillows (@TedPillows) posted that BTC had retested its support zone and was bouncing. He identified $79,000–$80,000 as the key level to reclaim, warning that failure to do so could send BTC back to $74,000.
$BTC retested its support zone and is now bouncing back.
The key level to reclaim for Bitcoin is $79,000-$80,000.
If BTC fails to reclaim this, another sell-off would happen, pushing BTC to $74,000. pic.twitter.com/xKEJrCL095
— Ted (@TedPillows) April 29, 2026
Trump Rejects Iran Deal, Strait of Hormuz Remains Blocked
President Trump rejected Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz first and hold nuclear talks later. Trump said the blockade stays until Iran agrees to address U.S. concerns about its nuclear program, describing the blockade as “somewhat more effective than the bombing.”
BREAKING: President Trump has "rejected" Iran's proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and the US has prepared a plan for a "short and powerful" wave of strikes on Iran, per Axios.
Details include:
1. Trump says he will keep Iran under a naval blockade until they agree to a…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 29, 2026
Trump also posted on Truth Social with the caption “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY,” telling Iran to “get smart soon.” The U.S. Central Command has reportedly prepared a plan for a short wave of strikes on Iran if talks remain deadlocked.
Oil prices rose on the news, adding further pressure on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
What Glassnode Data Shows
Glassnode analysts noted that Bitcoin traders had added bearish leverage ahead of the FOMC, with rising open interest, neutral funding rates, and a divergence between spot and futures market data.
Their Week Onchain report described Bitcoin as “trapped below market mean,” with $65,000–$70,000 acting as support but weak demand limiting rallies. Bitcoin failed to break its True Market Mean at $79,000.
Institutional flows into spot BTC ETFs and rising CME open interest have helped build a dense accumulation cluster between $65,000 and $70,000, according to Glassnode.
BTC was trading around $75,700 at time of writing, down from an intraday high above $77,000.
