TLDR
- Bitcoin has dropped over 21% from its all-time high of around $109,300
- Technical analysis using the Wyckoff reaccumulation model suggests Bitcoin may retest $100K
- Previous similar patterns in August 2024 led to a 40% rally from $53,400 to $74,000
- Bitcoin ETFs saw record withdrawals of nearly $1 billion during the recent sell-off
- Analysts remain divided with some predicting further drops and others believing “the top is not in”
Bitcoin has entered a period of significant price correction, dropping more than 21% from its all-time high of approximately $109,300 reached last month. As of February 26, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $87,534, putting it firmly in correction territory.
The price decline has sparked debate among analysts about Bitcoin’s next move. Some technical analysts point to the Wyckoff reaccumulation pattern as evidence that Bitcoin may be preparing for another push toward the $100,000 mark.
BTC Price
The Wyckoff model is a technical setup that follows specific phases after a strong uptrend. According to independent market analyst SuperBro, Bitcoin has entered the “Test” phase of this pattern. In this phase, Bitcoin is retesting its Spring phase low of around $85,950 as support. If this support holds, the pattern suggests Bitcoin could move toward a new Last Point of Support (LPS) near $96,780.
$BTC daily
potential Wyckoff reaccumulation pic.twitter.com/FDdILk3dVn
— Super฿ro (@SuperBitcoinBro) February 26, 2025
What makes this pattern worth noting is its similarity to price action observed in August 2024. During that period, a comparable Wyckoff pattern played out, resulting in a price increase from $53,400 to $74,000—a 40% rally.
Analyst Vijay Boyapati has drawn parallels to the consolidation that occurred in the $50,000-70,000 range for eight months in 2024, which eventually broke upward after Donald Trump won the presidential election.
Although Bitcoin's prior cycles had more of a parabolic shape with a blowoff top, it may be the case that the shape of Bitcoin's cycles are changing. And this should not be surprising given the size and scale of the capital now entering the market.
— Vijay Boyapati (@real_vijay) February 26, 2025
Market Crash
The recent price drop has had ripple effects throughout the crypto market. The fleet of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw record withdrawals of nearly $1 billion. This massive outflow matches a prediction made by Geoff Kendrick, head of crypto research at Standard Chartered Bank, who warned that “the big capitulation is yet to come.”
Bitcoin’s weekly charts suggest more price declines may be on the horizon. Historical patterns show that previous corrections from local tops have typically taken the price toward the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA), which currently sits at around $76,390—approximately 15% below current levels.
This key support level aligns with a multi-year ascending trendline that has been protecting Bitcoin from deeper sell-offs since November 2022. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 52.65 indicates Bitcoin has room to drop further in the coming weeks.
If Bitcoin breaks below this support zone, the sell-off could accelerate toward Fibonacci retracement levels at $57,690 and possibly as low as $48,170. However, a rebound from the current support range between $85,000 and $90,000 could set the stage for a move back toward $100,000.
Market participants are watching for potential catalysts that could determine Bitcoin’s next major move. Broader economic factors are playing a role in the current uncertainty. U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs have raised fears of a global trade war that could impact asset prices. Additionally, weakening consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations have complicated the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy plans.
Fed Cuts?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has paused the planned interest rate cutting cycle after an initial half-point reduction in September, as inflation threatens to increase again. The market is also awaiting Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings report, which could affect both tech and crypto markets depending on the results.
Bitcoin remains at what Bitfinex analysts describe as a “critical juncture” after nearly 90 days of consolidation. The cryptocurrency’s next major move will likely be influenced by macroeconomic trends and could prove decisive for its price trajectory in the coming months.
