TLDR
- Bitcoin’s long-term realized cap impulse is approaching historical support levels, signaling a potential market pivot
- BTC recently broke out of a W pattern on the four-hour chart, suggesting a possible uptrend
- Arthur Hayes urges investors to “buy everything” amid Federal Reserve liquidity signals
- BTC recovered from $79,500 to stabilize around $83,500 after forming a golden cross on the MACD
- Current market sentiment remains neutral with the fear and greed index at 45
Bitcoin is at a pivotal crossroads as key metrics suggest a significant turning point may be approaching. Long-term indicators and market patterns are converging to signal what could be a major directional change for the leading cryptocurrency.
The long-term realized cap impulse, which measures the conviction of long-term Bitcoin holders, is nearing historically important support levels. This metric evaluates the momentum of realized capitalization, adjusted for long-term trends.
Historical data shows that when this impulse reaches its lower support zone, it has coincided with major turning points for Bitcoin’s price action. At the time of reporting, the impulse sits at levels that previously preceded market recoveries in 2019 and late 2022.
BTC Price
This presents a binary outcome for Bitcoin’s near future. If BTC manages to bounce positively from this support zone, it could indicate that long-term holders are maintaining their positions, potentially setting the stage for renewed accumulation and upward momentum.
However, a breakdown at this level might signal decreasing confidence among Bitcoin’s most resilient participants. Such a shift could trigger a more substantial correction in the market.
Technical Indicators Point Upward
Recent technical analysis suggests Bitcoin may already be showing signs of recovery. A crypto strategist known as Cheds, who correctly predicted Bitcoin’s fall below $80,000, notes that BTC appears to have broken out of a W pattern on the four-hour chart.
A W pattern typically signals a bullish reversal, suggesting that an asset has established a price floor after bouncing from key support twice. “We had a break of the W and then a throwback, a throwback being a bullish retest from above,” Cheds explained.
The analyst believes Bitcoin will likely see higher prices as long as its immediate support level between $78,500 and $81,000 holds. “Regain $81,000 and we’re back in business,” Cheds stated.
Recent price action seems to support this view. Bitcoin started yesterday at $79,500, continuing a downtrend from before. The market soon reached oversold conditions, triggering a reversal when a golden cross formed on the MACD indicator.
A stable uptrend formed, with Bitcoin ascending rapidly at first, then slowing in the later hours. The uptrend continued until Bitcoin tested resistance. Shortly after, Bitcoin grew beyond this resistance despite overbought conditions shown by the RSI.
After some correction, Bitcoin broke above $83,000 and has since shown range-bound behavior, stabilizing near $83,500.
Macroeconomic Factors at Play
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and well-known Bitcoin advocate, has issued a bold call to investors to “buy everything” as Bitcoin appears positioned for massive gains.
Hayes’s optimistic Bitcoin prediction stems from rising bond yields, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding 4.5. He views this yield increase as a sign of financial stress that could prompt Federal Reserve intervention.
It’s on like donkey kong. We will be getting more policy response this weekend if this keeps up. We are about to enter UP ONLY mode for $BTC. pic.twitter.com/KL3OSYfiMc
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 11, 2025
“We will be getting more policy response this weekend if this keeps up. We are about to enter UP ONLY mode for BTC,” Hayes wrote, expressing his belief that Bitcoin is on the verge of a prolonged upward trend.
His sentiment aligns with recent remarks by Susan Collins, President of the Boston Federal Reserve. Collins mentioned that markets are functioning well for now, but the central bank is ready to act if needed.
She clarified that interest rate cuts are not the solution for liquidity challenges, noting, “The core interest rate tool we use for monetary policy is certainly not the only tool in the toolkit and probably not the best way to address challenges of liquidity or market functioning.”
And that’s a wrap folks. Buy everything! https://t.co/FOl09AYytp
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 11, 2025
Hayes sees the current macroeconomic environment as favorable ground for risk assets. The global economy faces uncertainty due to the U.S.-China Trade War and inflation concerns. President Trump’s recent tariff revisions have prompted retaliatory measures from Beijing, which has responded by weakening the Chinese Yuan.
Despite these economic challenges, Hayes predicts that incoming Fed liquidity injections will fuel the next Bitcoin bull run, summarizing his stance on cryptocurrencies simply as “Buy everything.”
Market Sentiment Remains Cautious
Current market sentiment reflects the uncertainty visible in technical indicators. The fear and greed index stands at 45, indicating a cautiously neutral sentiment that leans slightly toward fear but falls short of capitulation.
This reading mirrors the indecision apparent on the long-term impulse chart, highlighting that Bitcoin is approaching a critical decision point. Historically, sentiment often trails structural metrics, suggesting the current calm could precede a major directional shift.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $85,301, having recovered from recent lows.
