TLDR
- Bitcoin is trading around $84,421, struggling to break above the $85,000 level for the past two months
- Long-term holders’ profits have hit a two-year low, with the MVRV Long/Short Difference indicator at its lowest since March 2023
- Long-term holders have sold over 6,596 BTC (worth $550 million) in the last two weeks
- Bitcoin price stabilized after recovering from a low of $74,000 amid U.S.-China trade tensions
- Michael Saylor hinted that MicroStrategy may purchase more Bitcoin despite recently disclosing a $5.9 billion unrealized loss
Bitcoin’s price remains stuck below the $85,000 mark, creating pressure on long-term investors who are seeing their profits diminish to levels not seen in two years. Trading at $84,421 as of April 14, 2025, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has struggled to break through this psychological barrier for nearly two months.
The leading digital asset has made several attempts to rise above $85,000 but has failed to gain momentum. This sideways movement comes amid escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, which have created volatility across financial markets.
For long-term Bitcoin holders, this price stagnation has led to a concerning trend. The MVRV Long/Short Difference, a key metric that measures market sentiment, recently hit its lowest point since March 2023. This indicator suggests that long-term holders’ profits have fallen to a two-year low.
The data shows a shift in market dynamics. Short-term holders are becoming more dominant, taking advantage of price fluctuations, while long-term investors are holding back from adding to their positions as their unrealized gains continue to shrink.
Trade War Impact
Bitcoin recently recovered from a sharp drop to $74,000, a movement triggered by escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The price has since rebounded, but uncertainty remains.
The White House announced exemptions for electronic imports from China from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which helped ease immediate concerns about economic impact. However, President Trump indicated these exemptions are only temporary.
The ongoing trade dispute has seen Trump increase tariffs on Chinese goods to a cumulative 145%, with Beijing retaliating with 125% tariffs. This escalation has kept traders cautious about speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.
Financial markets are also concerned about increased expectations of a U.S. recession, which further dampens appetite for risk-oriented investments. Cryptocurrencies typically underperform during times of economic uncertainty, while safe-haven assets like gold tend to gain favor.
Investor Behavior Shifts
The pressure on Bitcoin’s price is reflected in the actions of long-term holders. Over the past two weeks, these investors have sold more than 6,596 BTC, equivalent to over $550 million at current prices.
While this figure may not seem enormous relative to Bitcoin’s total market capitalization, it represents a psychological shift from confidence to caution among the investor base that has historically provided price stability.
The HODLer Net Position Change, which tracks the buying and selling behavior of long-term investors, confirms this trend of decreased conviction. This lack of confidence could extend Bitcoin’s recovery timeline and contribute to further price stagnation.
If Bitcoin fails to break above $85,000 soon, technical analysts suggest the price could face additional pressure. The cryptocurrency is currently hovering just above the crucial support level of $82,619.
Should this support level break, Bitcoin could decline toward the $80,000 psychological support level. A further drop might test the $78,841 level, which would mark a more severe downturn and confirm continued market weakness.
However, if Bitcoin manages to breach and hold above $85,000, it could trigger a recovery toward $86,848. A sustained rise above this level would invalidate the current bearish trend and potentially push the price toward $89,800.
Corporate Interest Continues
Despite market uncertainty, some institutional players remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. Michael Saylor, chairman of MicroStrategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has hinted that the company may purchase more Bitcoin amid recent price dips.
Saylor made cryptic posts on social media platform X, including a BTC holdings tracker, which has preceded Bitcoin purchases by MicroStrategy in the past. These signals come just days after the company disclosed a $5.9 billion unrealized loss on its digital asset holdings.
MicroStrategy purchased 80,715 Bitcoins through the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating continued institutional confidence despite short-term price fluctuations.
Other cryptocurrencies are showing mixed performance amid the trade tensions. Ethereum rose 0.4% to $1,622.57, while XRP fell 0.4% to $2.1331. Solana showed strength with a 2.7% increase, while Cardano and Polygon dropped 0.6% and 3.2%, respectively.
The meme token space remains subdued, with Dogecoin trading flat and $TRUMP falling 3.1%.
Bitcoin’s immediate price action will likely depend on broader market risk sentiment and developments in the U.S.-China trade relationship. A breakthrough above $85,000 could signal renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below $82,619 might trigger further selling pressure.
For now, Bitcoin traders and investors remain in a holding pattern, watching for signs of which direction the market will take next.
