TLDR
- Bitcoin reached $119,450 on October 2, its highest price in seven weeks since August 14
- CryptoQuant forecasts Bitcoin could reach $160,000 to $200,000 by the end of Q4 2025 if current demand patterns continue
- Monthly spot demand for Bitcoin has been increasing by more than 62,000 BTC since July 2025
- US labor market data showing weakness has increased the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts to 99% for the October 29 meeting
- Whale holdings are expanding at an annual rate of 331,000 BTC, higher than previous fourth quarter periods
Bitcoin climbed 4% over 24 hours to reach $119,450 on Coinbase during early trading on October 2. This marked the cryptocurrency’s highest price point since August 14, seven weeks earlier.
The price surge pushed Bitcoin above the $117,500 resistance level. The digital asset now faces resistance at the $120,000 mark.
The rally increased total crypto market capitalization by 3.5% to $4.16 trillion. Bitcoin’s market cap reached $2.37 trillion, placing it above Amazon’s valuation according to CompaniesMarketCap.
October has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month. The cryptocurrency has posted gains in 10 of the past 12 Octobers based on CoinGlass data.
US job opening data from August showed a marginal increase while hiring declined. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released these figures this week.
The labor market data supports expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. CME futures prediction markets now show a 99% probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed’s October 29 meeting, up from 96.2% on Monday.
Fourth Quarter Price Projections
CryptoQuant released analysis stating Bitcoin entered Q4 2025 under favorable conditions for a price rally. The onchain analytics firm projects a price range of $160,000 to $200,000 by year’s end if demand growth continues.
Spot demand for Bitcoin has been rising since July. Apparent demand has been increasing at a monthly pace exceeding 62,000 BTC according to CryptoQuant.
This demand pattern matches conditions that preceded previous fourth quarter rallies in 2020, 2021, and 2024. Whale holdings are expanding at an annual rate of 331,000 BTC.
This compares to 255,000 BTC in Q4 2024 and over 238,000 at the start of Q4 2020. US-listed ETFs purchased 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024, representing a 71% increase from the previous quarter.
THEY’RE BUYING. HARD. 🔥#BITCOIN SPOT ETFS SAW $429.9M INFLOWS (3,762 BTC) YESTERDAY.
NOT ONE ETF HAD AN OUTFLOW. pic.twitter.com/mxotz6zusA
— Carl Moon (@TheMoonCarl) October 1, 2025
Demand Indicators Support Bullish Case
Bitcoin broke above the trader’s on-chain realized price of $116,000. CryptoQuant identifies this as the threshold for shifting back into the bull phase of the cycle.
CryptoQuant’s bitcoin bull score index stood at 40-50 in late September. These levels matched readings from the end of Q3 2024, before Bitcoin rallied from $70,000 to $100,000.
The index has been supported by growing Bitcoin demand and expanding stablecoin liquidity. Lower unrealized trader gains indicate reduced selling pressure according to the firm.
Standard Chartered Bank, Bitwise, and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee have also issued forecasts for Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year end. Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2028.
Other cryptocurrencies also posted gains on October 2. Ethereum rose more than 5% to reach $4,390, its highest level since September 22.
Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, Chainlink and Hyperliquid all increased more than 6% during the same period. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin had retreated slightly to $118,947 after reaching the seven-week high.
