TLDR
- Analyst Willy Woo warns of a major Bitcoin price crash incoming after a short rebound to ~$75K
- BTC could bottom at $45K, with $30K possible if global macro conditions break down
- Both spot and futures liquidity are deteriorating — Woo says he’s never seen BTC rally in these conditions
- The bearish trend is expected to ease in Q4 2026, with a bull market return in Q1 or Q2 2027
- Other analysts echo the bearish outlook, with Peter Brandt calling for a drop to $42K
On-chain analyst Willy Woo has warned that Bitcoin is heading for a major price drop, with a likely bottom around $45,000.
This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a repreive to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely to be rejected.
This is because the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures… pic.twitter.com/MAUlmBJtbE
— Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 27, 2026
Woo says BTC may briefly rebound to $75,000 and trade sideways for about a month. But he doesn’t expect that level to hold.
The reason, he says, is that both spot and futures liquidity are deteriorating at the same time. “I’ve never seen BTC rally when both sources of liquidity are bearish,” Woo stated.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $67,800, down roughly 1% on the day.
Glassnode has noted that profit-taking is draining momentum near the $70,000 level. Even small sell events are enough to push the price back down in the current thin liquidity environment.
Bear Market Bottom Targets
Woo puts $45,000 as his base case for the bear market bottom. He expects strong buy-the-dip interest at that level.
If global macro conditions worsen further, he sees $30,000 as the next major support. He has identified $16,000 as the final line that would need to hold to keep Bitcoin’s long-term bull trend intact.
Woo noted that Bitcoin has only ever existed during a global macro bull market, running from 2009 to 2026. A breakdown of that environment would be uncharted territory for BTC.
Timeline for Recovery
Woo expects the bearish trend to begin fading in Q4 2026. He said a bullish trend could return in Q1 or Q2 2027, which aligns with Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also predicted a Bitcoin drop, targeting $42,000. That level aligns with the 200-week moving average, a widely watched long-term support indicator.
Some market participants are watching the realized price at $54,000 as a nearer-term downside target.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan holds a different view. He believes selling pressure has eased and that the market may be in the process of forming a bottom, with new all-time highs still possible.
BTC is currently trading at approximately $67,800, with Glassnode data showing continued momentum suppression near the $70,000 zone.
