TLDR
- Bitcoin is on track to close September with a 4.5% gain, marking one of only five positive September closes in its history.
- Historical data shows that when Bitcoin closes September in the green, Q4 typically produces average returns over 53%, with October averaging 21.8% gains.
- If the historical pattern repeats, Bitcoin could reach $170,000 by year-end, representing roughly a 50% rally from current levels.
- Onchain metrics show strengthening bullish signals, with the Spot Taker CVD turning positive for the first time since July 14 and the Coinbase premium indicating strong US investor accumulation.
- Bitcoin Core v30 is expected to remove the 80-byte OP_RETURN data limit, sparking debate about Bitcoin’s future use cases, while billionaire Tim Draper predicts retailers will eventually only accept Bitcoin and Massachusetts considers allocating up to 10% of its stabilization fund to Bitcoin reserves.
Bitcoin is preparing to close September with a 4.5% gain, reaching approximately $113,100 on the month’s final trading day. This marks a rare positive September for the cryptocurrency, which has historically struggled during this month.
The green September close carries weight because of what typically follows. According to historical data, when Bitcoin closed September in positive territory in 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, the fourth quarter produced average returns exceeding 53%.
Breaking down those historical Q4 performances, October averaged gains of 21.8%, November posted 10.8%, and December saw a decline of 3.2%. This pattern identifies October as the typical launch point for year-end rallies.
In those four previous instances, Bitcoin posted Q4 returns between 45% and 66%. If this pattern repeats from current levels, Bitcoin could reach the $170,000 range before 2025 ends.
Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson recently noted that roughly 60% of Bitcoin’s annual performance tends to occur after October 3. He suggested a 50% probability of BTC reaching $200,000 by mid-2026.
Peterson added that while this year is almost certain to be positive based on history and developing market conditions, big gains typically don’t start until around the third week of October.
Bitcoin currently trades at $114,285, down 0.16% on the day with $58.2 billion in 24-hour volume. The price is holding above key support levels despite the slight pullback.
Onchain Data Shows Building Momentum
Multiple onchain indicators are flashing bullish signals. The Spot Taker CVD on a 90-day basis turned positive on Monday, marking its first green signal since July 14.
This indicator tracks the cumulative difference between market buy and market sell volumes. A positive reading suggests a phase where buying pressure outweighs selling activity.
The Coinbase premium index has also highlighted consistent accumulation by US investors. Data showed concentrated clusters of green activity during the third quarter, signaling aggressive spot demand not seen since early July.
Community Debates and Institutional Moves
The Bitcoin community faces division ahead of Bitcoin Core v30’s expected release. The update would remove the long-standing 80-byte OP_RETURN data limit, allowing larger non-financial data storage directly on-chain.
Critics argue this contradicts Satoshi Nakamoto’s original vision of Bitcoin as peer-to-peer currency. Supporters see opportunities for new applications built on Bitcoin’s base layer.
Billionaire investor Tim Draper predicts retailers will eventually only accept Bitcoin. While most institutions view BTC as a long-term store of value, Draper believes major retailer acceptance will trigger organic spending.
Billionaire Tim Draper says it's irresponsible for businesses NOT to buy Bitcoin and forecasts $250,000 in 2025. pic.twitter.com/jgzCvz3rYH
— Fiat Archive (@fiatarchive) September 30, 2025
Massachusetts lawmakers are considering a bill that would allow up to 10% of the state’s stabilization fund to be allocated to Bitcoin reserves. The bill faces hurdles in the Democrat-controlled legislature but signals growing recognition of Bitcoin as a strategic asset at the state level.
Bitcoin is consolidating near $114,154 after breaking out from a descending channel that defined September’s pullback. Price rests just below resistance at $114,741, with the 100-period SMA at $112,808 serving as strong support.
The Relative Strength Index has cooled to 60 from overbought levels near 80. Recent candlestick patterns suggest an ascending triangle formation, a common continuation setup after strong rallies.
A breakout above $114,741 could push price toward $116,150 and the September peak of $117,850. A run at $120,000 becomes possible if momentum holds through October.
