TLDR
- Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin will surge 25% to reach $135,000 by end of Q3 2025
- Bank believes Bitcoin has broken free from traditional post-halving price decline patterns
- ETF inflows and corporate treasury buying totaled 245,000 BTC in Q2 alone
- Technical analysis shows Bitcoin approaching breakout zone near $116,000 resistance
- Long-term projections target $200,000 by year-end and $500,000 by 2028
Bitcoin trades around $108,000 as analysts debate whether the cryptocurrency can break through key resistance levels. Standard Chartered released a bullish forecast predicting Bitcoin will jump 25% to reach $135,000 by the end of the third quarter.
The British bank’s digital asset research head Geoff Kendrick argues Bitcoin has moved beyond historical post-halving price patterns. Traditional cycles would suggest price declines 18 months after halving events, but Kendrick believes this time is different.
“Thanks to increased investor flows, we believe BTC has moved beyond the previous dynamic whereby prices fell 18 months after a ‘halving’ cycle,” Kendrick stated in the bank’s research report.
The most recent Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024. Previous halvings in 2016 and 2020 led to price corrections roughly 18 months later. However, Standard Chartered points to two factors that weren’t present during earlier cycles.
Institutional demand through exchange-traded funds represents the first major change. Bitcoin ETF flows and corporate treasury buying totaled 245,000 BTC in the second quarter alone. The bank expects this level to be exceeded in both Q3 and Q4.
Corporate bitcoin purchases for treasury purposes mark the second shift in market dynamics. Companies now view Bitcoin as a treasury asset rather than just a speculative investment.
Technical Breakout Zone Approaches
Bitcoin currently faces resistance near $110,000 after consolidating around the $108,000 level. Technical analysts have identified $116,000 as the key breakout zone that could trigger the next major rally.
Crypto strategist Javon Marks projects that breaking above $116,000 could send Bitcoin toward $165,745. This would represent a 52.5% gain from current price levels.
$116,000+ is still in play for Bitcoin!
Above $116,652 and we are looking at $165,745 coming in…$BTC https://t.co/pxceXlN1Yd pic.twitter.com/jwCCe8D00V
— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) July 5, 2025
The cryptocurrency shows technical strength with positive MACD readings and RSI at 55, indicating room for upward movement. Bitcoin’s 7-day moving average sits at $107,870, while the 30-day average is $106,177.
A bull flag pattern on hourly charts supports the bullish outlook. Breaking above $111,980 could invalidate current consolidation and push Bitcoin into the $120,000-$145,000 range.
Mixed Signals from ETF Activity
Recent ETF flows present a mixed picture for Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $342.3 million in outflows last Tuesday, marking their first outflows since June 6.
This reversal ended a 15-day streak that brought $4.8 billion in inflows. The outflows represented 7% of the total inflows seen during the previous two-week period.
Despite recent outflows, Standard Chartered maintains that institutional demand remains the key driver. The bank acknowledges prices could be “somewhat choppy” in late Q3 and early Q4 due to historical correction concerns.
Total Bitcoin ETF assets under management have surpassed $49 billion since launch. The SEC has approved rule amendments for greater ETF exposure, potentially boosting institutional adoption.
On-chain data shows over $8 billion worth of inactive Bitcoin moved recently. Analysis revealed this represented long-term holder redistribution rather than selling pressure, helping settle market sentiment.
Eight dormant Bitcoin wallets moved 80,009 BTC, representing 0.6% of circulating supply. These wallets were part of a group holding 1% of all Bitcoin mined in 2010-2011.
Whale activity suggests large holders are positioning for potential price moves. While volatility remains contained, behind-the-scenes activity hints at preparation for bigger movements.
Not all analysts share Standard Chartered’s aggressive timeline. Kirill Kretov from CoinPanel expressed caution about near-term projections above $135,000.
“While Bitcoin reaching $135K or even $200K by year-end is possible, especially in a thin, sentiment-driven market, I would remain cautious about taking such projections at face value,” Kretov stated.
His on-chain research shows larger players actively accumulating Bitcoin in the $100,000-$110,000 range. Liquidity continues being withdrawn from actively transacting wallets, suggesting a structured accumulation phase.
Paul Howard from Wincent offered measured optimism about Standard Chartered’s forecast. “To date, Geoff has consistently delivered more accurate price predictions than not,” Howard noted.
However, Howard expressed skepticism about the $200,000 year-end target. “I will be surprised if prices touch $200k given this would arguably need around $1Tn additional market cap.”
Other major institutions have released their own Bitcoin forecasts. VanEck expects a “dual-peak cycle” with Bitcoin potentially hitting $180,000 in the first half of 2025.
4 top signals in Bitcoin’s history. Each corresponded to a top. Nowhere near one. https://t.co/4hIYrSm1Ob pic.twitter.com/rWARvTdU0c
— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) July 4, 2025
The Finder.com expert panel, surveying over 50 cryptocurrency analysts, produced an average forecast of $161,000 for Bitcoin by end of 2025. ARK Invest maintains a base case of $1.2 million by 2030.
Standard Chartered’s forecast extends beyond 2025, targeting $500,000 by 2028. The bank views Bitcoin’s institutional adoption trajectory as fundamentally altering market dynamics and rendering historical patterns obsolete.
