TLDR
- VanEck’s Heat Index hits 16.8%, placing the crypto market in undervalued territory.
- Bitcoin trades above $93,700, rising 7.5% in the past seven days, per CoinGecko.
- VanEck’s breadth model shows the first bullish Bitcoin signal in several months.
- Previous signals from the index led to a median 20.4% return over 90 days.
VanEck’s MarketVector Crypto Heat Index has issued its first Bitcoin buy signal since early April 2025. This development marks a potential turning point in the digital asset market. The index, created by MarketVector Indexes, a VanEck subsidiary, now reads 16.8%. This places it firmly in the ‘Undervalued’ zone, which ranges from 0% to 25%.
The index aims to provide a structured measure of market valuation. It relies on technical indicators and moving averages rather than sentiment-driven data. Martin Leinweber, Digital Asset Product Strategist at MarketVector, confirmed the signal via a post on X, noting bullish technical momentum.
Technical Indicators Shift Toward Accumulation
The bullish signal was triggered after the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of the index crossed above the 50-day SMA. This crossover happened while the index remained in undervalued territory. According to past performance, such signals have led to a median return of 20.4% over 90 days and 76.7% over one year for Bitcoin.
VanEck’s internal models use technical and structural data points to monitor crypto cycles. These include market breadth, price momentum, and moving averages.
Source: X
According to Leinweber, the market shows signs of stabilization as more altcoins begin to outperform Bitcoin. He added, “Breadth stabilizing. More constituents outperforming Bitcoin. Signs that capitulation-level sentiment may be behind us.”
Market Sentiment Appears Near Cycle Lows
Bitcoin recently broke above $91,000 and is now trading around $93,219. This marks a 7.5% gain over the past week, according to CoinGecko data. Rising geopolitical tensions and improved liquidity conditions are also contributing to the shift in market dynamics.
VanEck analysts suggest that the current period may represent a favorable window for investors who are still underallocated to crypto. The firm has observed that Bitcoin tends to recover in four-year cycles.
🚨 🚨 Proprietary* VanEck breadth signal flags first BTC bull call since April 7, 2025, the bottom tick last year. https://t.co/kq1fxcBVDg pic.twitter.com/dxUz2BlfEP
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) January 5, 2026
2026 may enter the recovery phase after Bitcoin’s underperformance in late 2025. Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets, endorsed the analysis on X. He said their proprietary breadth model gave its first bullish signal in months.
Index Methodology and Historical Context
The MarketVector Crypto Heat Index categorizes the crypto market into three valuation zones: undervalued (0–25%), neutral (25–75%), and overheated (75–100%). It avoids emotional indicators like the Fear & Greed Index and instead uses quantitative data for consistency.
The last time the index gave a buy signal was in April 2025. That signal preceded a major rebound following a correction triggered by U.S.–China trade tensions. Analysts believe the current reading could indicate another market low, providing tactical entry points for investors.
The combination of technical indicators, improving breadth, and rising prices suggests that crypto market conditions may be stabilizing. As a result, investors and fund managers may now look to reassess crypto exposure in early 2026.
