TLDR
- Bitcoin hits a two-week high of $117,000 after weak private payrolls data in September.
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Fed rate cut bets soar, with markets expecting a 0.25% cut in October.
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Risk assets, including Bitcoin, benefit from expectations of economic easing.
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Bitcoin’s strong performance aligns with historical trends of strong fall months.
Bitcoin surged to a two-week high of $117,000 following weaker-than-expected private payroll data for September. The data, released by ADP, showed a decline of 32,000 jobs in September, which was far below the expected 50,000 increase. This miss in employment numbers has fueled optimism in the market, with investors betting that the Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts sooner than previously anticipated.
The surge in Bitcoin’s price reflects growing market expectations that the Fed may ease monetary policy to support the economy. As risk assets, such as Bitcoin, often thrive in environments with lower interest rates, this has triggered bullish sentiment in the digital asset space. Bitcoin’s performance has been closely linked to broader economic conditions, and the recent economic signals are seen as favorable for cryptocurrencies.
Labor Market Data Fuels Rate Cut Expectations
The weak labor market report has added to fears of an economic slowdown, which, according to analysts, could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in its upcoming meetings. The report showed a slowdown in hiring, combined with a marginal increase in job openings.
Many economists now believe that the Fed will likely lower interest rates in the near future to stimulate growth, with a 99% probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed’s meeting on October 29.
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore pointed out that the weak ADP employment report, coupled with a soft consumer confidence reading, strengthens the case for Fed rate cuts. He added that the unemployment rate is likely to rise from 4.3% to 4.4% in September, further supporting the need for accommodative monetary policy. The markets are responding with optimism, especially in the cryptocurrency space, where Bitcoin is seen as a hedge against economic uncertainty.
Uptober Trends and Bitcoin’s Seasonal Strength
October is historically one of Bitcoin’s most bullish months, with the cryptocurrency showing positive performance in 10 of the last 12 years during this period. The combination of weaker economic indicators and historical seasonal trends has created an environment conducive to further Bitcoin gains.
As the digital asset market gains momentum, Bitcoin’s surge above $117,000 has increased optimism among investors, leading to renewed interest in both Bitcoin and altcoins.
In addition to Bitcoin’s rally, other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum and Solana, have also seen substantial gains. Ethereum, for instance, rose by over 5% in a single day, pushing its price to $4,390, its highest level since September 22, 2025. As the broader crypto market reacts positively to expectations of rate cuts and a stronger fall market, Bitcoin’s performance may continue to lead the charge.
Fed Rate Cut Bets and Bitcoin’s Role as a Hedge
As the market adjusts to the possibility of lower interest rates, Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly attractive asset for investors seeking protection from potential inflation and economic uncertainty. With the Fed likely to cut rates in October, Bitcoin’s rally past $119,000 shows its growing sensitivity to monetary policy decisions.
Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, stated that Bitcoin’s performance is closely tied to shifting monetary policy outlooks, especially during periods of economic softness.
The digital asset’s role as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty makes it an appealing investment in times of perceived economic vulnerability. The market’s positive reaction to the expected rate cuts suggests that Bitcoin will continue to perform well in the coming months as the Fed adjusts its policies.
