TLDR
- Bitcoin drops to $103,500 as the Coinbase Premium Index turns negative.
- RSI falls to 34, matching April’s low and signaling possible price support.
- Taker sell volume exceeds $4 billion amid rising short-term market pressure.
- BTC trades near its 200-day EMA, a key support held for nearly six months.
Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure this week as the Coinbase Premium Index turned negative while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached levels last seen in April. The shift signals short-term caution among U.S. investors but also points to a potential price stabilization phase similar to Bitcoin’s earlier market bottom.
Coinbase Premium Turns Negative as BTC Falls Below $104,000
Bitcoin fell below $104,000 on Friday, dropping to an intraday low near $103,500. The decline marked a turning point for the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price gap between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other major exchanges. The index flipped negative on the hourly chart for the first time in several weeks.
Earlier in the week, Bitcoin had found temporary support near $110,000 as U.S. spot demand strengthened. During that period, the Coinbase Premium briefly rose to 0.18, its highest level since March 2024. However, as prices failed to stay above the $110,000 threshold, short-term buying momentum weakened.
Analysts noted that while the hourly premium has turned negative, the daily figure remains slightly positive, suggesting that long-term institutional interest from U.S. investors is still present but under pressure.
Rising Sell Volume Adds Pressure to Market Sentiment
The recent downturn was accompanied by a sharp increase in taker sell volume, which surpassed $4 billion. This indicates a rise in market sell orders as traders moved to secure profits or limit exposure. The price drop also coincided with Bitcoin’s rejection near the short-term holder (STH) realized price of $112,370, now acting as an important resistance level.
Historically, this price zone reflects the average entry cost for newer market participants. Sustained rejection below it often leads to temporary capitulation among short-term traders. Market observers suggest that failure to recover above $112,000 could push Bitcoin toward the $100,000 range, where liquidity remains dense. However, this level could also serve as a potential support zone if buyers re-enter the market.
RSI Matches April Low, Hinting at Possible Stabilization
Bitcoin’s RSI has fallen to its lowest point since April, reaching a reading of 34. The last time the RSI reached this level, Bitcoin began forming a bottom before starting a slow recovery phase. Technical analysts view this as a potential sign that the asset may soon stabilize, provided the broader market does not experience deeper corrections.
The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) continues to serve as a critical support indicator. Bitcoin has held above this trendline for nearly six months. In the previous market phase, the price maintained a similar pattern from October 2024 to March 2025 before a brief consolidation period. The present structure suggests that Bitcoin may test this level again, with the possibility of a temporary dip below it before recovery.
Market Outlook and Short-Term Scenarios
Current patterns resemble Bitcoin’s March–April bottom structure, when sharp intraday declines cleared accumulated liquidity before a gradual rebound. Analysts point out that as long as Bitcoin remains above $100,000, the broader bullish trend remains intact. A decisive break below that level, however, could lead to extended consolidation.
If the asset follows its previous recovery pattern, a similar timeline would indicate a potential rebound forming between late November and early December. For now, traders are watching the $100,000–$104,000 range closely, as it may define the next market phase. The combination of weakening Coinbase Premium and an oversold RSI suggests that while near-term pressure persists, a recovery phase could be forming in the background.
