TLDR
- BitMine chair Tom Lee warns Bitcoin could still experience 50% price declines despite increased institutional investment and spot ETF launches
- Lee argues Bitcoin remains highly correlated with stock markets and amplifies their movements, potentially dropping 40% if the S&P falls 20%
- Bitcoin has broken from its typical four-year cycle, with Lee predicting a “longer cycle” is now developing
- Lee maintains his forecast for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 to $250,000 by year-end despite the volatility warning
- Lee views Ethereum as undervalued and expects BitMine to become the world’s largest Ethereum holding company
BitMine chair Tom Lee has cautioned that Bitcoin remains vulnerable to steep price crashes even as Wall Street embraces the cryptocurrency. Speaking in an interview with crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, Lee stated he expects Bitcoin to experience 50% drawdowns in the future.
I sat down with @fundstrat to discuss whether AI is a bubble, why this may be the most hated stock market rally in history, and how misleading economic data shapes investor sentiment.
Tom also shares his latest views on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and why innovation in crypto markets is… pic.twitter.com/5GSKz5V1X0
— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) October 24, 2025
The warning comes as many market participants have suggested that Bitcoin’s volatility would decrease following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional adoption. Lee disagrees with this assessment, pointing to the cryptocurrency’s continued correlation with traditional stock markets.
“The stock market has more frequent 25% drawdowns,” Lee explained. He noted that the stock market has experienced an unusually large number of 25% declines over the past six years despite its overall progress.
Bitcoin typically amplifies stock market movements, according to Lee. He provided a specific example: “If the S&P is down 20, Bitcoin could be down 40.” This correlation means institutional involvement has not eliminated Bitcoin’s volatile nature.
Bitcoin’s Cycle Breaking Down
Lee also discussed changes in Bitcoin’s market behavior. The cryptocurrency has moved away from its traditional four-year cycle, which would have predicted a peak in October 2025.
Instead, Lee believes a “longer cycle” is now forming. He maintains his prediction that Bitcoin will reach between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2025.
A 50% correction from that projected price range would bring Bitcoin down to approximately $125,000. This level sits near Bitcoin’s current all-time high of around $110,000.
If Bitcoin has already peaked at its current price, a 50% decline would push it to roughly $54,990. Bitcoin last traded at that level in September 2024.
Lee is not alone in his bearish outlook. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently compared Bitcoin’s current price chart to the soybean market pattern from the 1970s, which preceded a 50% crash.
Historical Precedent for Sharp Declines
Bitcoin has experienced similar steep declines in the past. In November 2021, the cryptocurrency reached a then-record high of $69,000.
Within just over three months, by late January 2022, Bitcoin had fallen roughly 50% to around $35,000. This demonstrates that such dramatic price swings can occur rapidly.
Not all Bitcoin advocates share Lee’s cautious view. Strategy chairman Michael Saylor said in June 2024 that “Winter is not coming back,” suggesting he expects less severe downturns.
Lee remains optimistic about Ethereum despite his Bitcoin warning. He stated that BitMine will continue accumulating Ethereum and aims to become the world’s largest Ethereum holding company.
BitMine currently holds over 3.2 million Ethereum, representing about 2.7% of the total supply. The company plans to increase its holdings to 6 million Ethereum long-term. Lee argues Ethereum remains undervalued and could reach $21,000 if the Ethereum-Bitcoin ratio returns to its 2021 peak.
