TLDR
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts 2026 will be an “up year” for Bitcoin, not 2025
- The traditional four-year Bitcoin halving cycle is “dead” according to multiple crypto executives
- Bitcoin halvings become “half as important” every four years, reducing their market impact
- Institutional adoption and regulatory clarity are creating new long-term forces in crypto markets
- Current interest rate environment and reduced “blow-up risk” support sustained crypto growth
The cryptocurrency industry may be entering a new era as traditional market patterns break down. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle has ended, replaced by longer-term institutional forces.
Hougan predicts 2026 will be Bitcoin’s next major “up year,” breaking from the expected 2025 peak. He argues the four-year halving cycle “is dead” due to structural changes in the crypto market.
🚨DID I HEAR SUPER CYCLE???
The four-year cycle is dead and adoption killed it.@Matt_Hougan says we're going higher in 2026.
Early profit takers will be left behind!!!
Full break down with @JSeyff and @Matt_Hougan in comments👇 pic.twitter.com/Ffn9penapN
— Kyle Chassé / DD🐸 (@kyle_chasse) July 25, 2025
The executive points to several factors driving this shift. Bitcoin halvings become “half as important” every four years, reducing their price impact over time. The current interest rate environment also favors crypto assets more than previous cycles.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju agrees with this assessment. He recently stated the Bitcoin four-year cycle theory “is dead” and no longer provides reliable market signals.
Ju explains that whale behavior has changed fundamentally. Previous cycles saw large holders sell Bitcoin to retail investors during peaks. Now old whales are selling to new institutional whales who plan to hold long-term.
Regulatory Clarity Reduces Market Volatility
The crypto market faces less “blow-up risk” than previous cycles according to Hougan. Improved regulation and institutionalization have made the space more stable and predictable.
Wall Street capital is beginning to flow into digital assets through ETFs and other regulated products. The recent passage of legislation like the GENIUS Act provides additional regulatory framework for institutional participation.
Pension funds and endowments are starting to explore crypto as an asset class. This institutional adoption represents a multi-year trend that began in 2024 with crypto ETF approvals.
The total crypto market cap currently sits around $3.82 trillion, approaching its all-time high near $4 trillion. Technical analysis shows the market maintaining higher lows and higher highs on monthly timeframes.
New Risks Emerge in Mature Market
Hougan identifies Treasury companies as the most significant new risk factor. These firms accumulate Bitcoin by issuing stock or taking on debt, creating potential market volatility.
VanEck recently warned that Treasury companies might be overextended if Bitcoin prices fall sharply. Their large holdings could amplify market movements in both directions.
However, Hougan expects a “sustained steady boom” rather than explosive price growth. He acknowledges that significant volatility will continue but believes the underlying trend remains positive.
Not all analysts agree the cycle has ended. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital warns Bitcoin may only have months of expansion left if it follows 2020 patterns.
Rekt Capital suggests the market could peak in October 2025, which would be 550 days after the April 2024 halving. This timeline matches historical precedent from previous cycles.
Bitcoin currently trades at $118,169, up over 10% in the past 30 days. The cryptocurrency has shown resilience despite traditional cycle expectations calling for a peak this year.
