TLDR
- Bitcoin traded at a discount on Coinbase for four consecutive days from October 31 to November 3, the longest streak since mid-August, indicating negative US retail sentiment
- BTC lost 5% in October after a flash crash, ending a seven-year streak of strong October performance known as “uptober” among traders
- The negative Coinbase premium coincided with capital outflows from US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and increased selling pressure
- Bitcoin volatility compressed to multi-week lows with Bollinger Bandwidth near 15, historically signaling major price moves ahead
- BTC trades around $107,636 with key resistance at $112,000 for bullish surge and psychological support at $100,000 to prevent deeper correction
Bitcoin dropped below $108,000 in early November as the cryptocurrency traded at a discount on Coinbase for the first time in months. The world’s largest cryptocurrency lost momentum after a challenging October.
The Coinbase premium turned negative from October 31 through November 3. This marked the longest streak of discount trading since mid-August.
Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase serves as a key indicator of US retail sentiment toward crypto. The exchange dominates US markets. When demand is strong, Bitcoin typically trades at a premium to the global average price.
Here’s the Coinbase Premium Index chart I was talking about. Notice how the index dropped even more during today’s price rally🤔
It is meaning U.S. traders or ETFs are selling, not buying. That’s a clear sign this move isn’t sustainable. After my post, Bitcoin already slipped… https://t.co/yn0wnObRmx pic.twitter.com/xD5qNH5nzg
— Against Wall Street (@aganstwallst) October 31, 2025
The recent discount signals a shift in American investor behavior. Coinglass, a crypto analytics firm, noted that negative premium indicates selling pressure in US markets. It also shows declining risk appetite and increased risk aversion among traders.
October proved difficult for Bitcoin holders. The cryptocurrency lost about 5% during the month. This ended a seven-year streak of strong October performance that traders called “uptober.”
A flash crash at the beginning of October triggered the decline. Bitcoin struggled to recover throughout the rest of the month. The cryptocurrency traded at $107,636 on Monday morning.
ETF Outflows Match Negative Sentiment
The four days of negative Coinbase premium aligned with another bearish signal. Capital flowed out of US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds during the same period.
On October 30, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $488 million, with all 12 funds recording zero inflows. Ethereum spot ETFs posted a total net outflow of $184 million, also with no inflows across nine products. In contrast, Solana spot ETFs recorded a net inflow… pic.twitter.com/ZaIfLRwkkH
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 31, 2025
These outflows reinforced the narrative of weakening domestic demand. Bitcoin broke below one of its strong support zones near $108,000. The price action disappointed traders who expected a recovery.
Volatility Squeeze Points to Major Move Ahead
Technical analysis shows Bitcoin entering a critical phase. Volatility compressed to multi-week lows on the weekly chart. The Bollinger Bandwidth indicator dropped near the 15 level.
$BTC weekly
tightest squeeze in history for the weekly Bollinger Bands
prior squeezes led to a headfake lower and then a rip higher pic.twitter.com/va8UQp5Ifo
— Super฿ro (@SuperBitcoinBro) November 3, 2025
This threshold historically preceded major price expansions. Previous volatility squeezes led to strong directional moves in Bitcoin’s trend. The current consolidation around $108,000 suggests the market is coiling for a breakout.
Traders identified two key price levels. A move above $112,000 resistance could trigger a bullish surge toward new highs. A breakdown below the $100,000 psychological support might confirm a medium-term correction.
The bearish trend line formed with resistance at $109,800 on the hourly chart. Bitcoin traded below both $109,000 and the 100-hour simple moving average. These technical factors pointed to continued downward pressure.
If bulls attempt a recovery, the price faces immediate resistance near $109,500. The next resistance sits at $110,500. A close above that level might send Bitcoin toward $111,200.
On the downside, immediate support appears near $107,400. The first major support level is $106,500. Further losses could push Bitcoin toward $105,500 or even $104,200 in the near term.
The MACD indicator gained pace in the bearish zone. The Relative Strength Index fell below 50. Both momentum indicators suggested continued weakness in the short term.
Market participants await a clear catalyst to define direction. Macroeconomic uncertainty and cooling momentum contribute to the current tight range. Bitcoin’s price consolidation around $108,000 reflects market indecision as the year approaches its end.
