TLDR
- Bitcoin price remains trapped at the $116,000 resistance level, preventing further upward movement.
- Bitfinex analysts believe Bitcoin will struggle to break higher until it decisively reclaims the $116,000 mark.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision could impact Bitcoin price significantly.
- Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee predicts a potential Bitcoin surge if the Fed cuts interest rates.
- Bitcoin price has struggled to regain momentum since hitting an all-time high of $124,100 in mid-August.
Bitcoin price remains trapped at the $116,000 resistance level, as analysts from Bitfinex predict limited movement until it breaks above this threshold. Despite recent fluctuations, the cryptocurrency faces challenges regaining momentum after its all-time high of $124,100 in mid-August. Two key events could influence its price trajectory, but uncertainty looms over how the market will react.
Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance at $116,000
Bitfinex analysts have highlighted the resistance level at $116,000, stating that Bitcoin price will struggle to break higher unless it is “decisively reclaimed.” Since reaching a peak of $124,100 on August 14, Bitcoin price has failed to maintain upward momentum. The price has dipped below the cost basis of many buyers who entered during the $108,000 to $116,000 range.
Currently, Bitcoin price is trading just above $116,000, making it challenging for the cryptocurrency to break free from this resistance zone. The resistance remains firm as long as Bitcoin cannot build sustained upward momentum. Analysts from Bitfinex note that while there is potential for a breakout, Bitcoin price is unlikely to move higher without clear signs of renewed buying pressure.
Fed Rate Cut Could Spark Bitcoin Surge
Two key catalysts may impact Bitcoin price in the coming weeks. The first event is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, which is expected on Wednesday. A 25-basis-point rate cut is widely anticipated, with the market assigning a 96.1% probability to this outcome. If the Fed lowers interest rates, it could lead to a positive reaction from Bitcoin price and other risk-on assets.
Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee sees the rate cut as a potential trigger for significant Bitcoin and Ether price movements. He suggests that the rate cut could lead to a “monster move” in the cryptocurrency market over the next three months. However, crypto analyst Ted remains more skeptical, predicting Bitcoin price might initially dip to $104,000 before recovering or even fall further to $92,000 before reaching a new all-time high.
BTC Price and Historical Trends
Another potential catalyst for Bitcoin price comes on October 1, marking the start of Q4 2025. Historically, Bitcoin price has performed well during this quarter, with an average return of 85.42% since 2013. This historical trend may provide a boost to Bitcoin price as market participants anticipate the potential for strong performance in the final quarter of the year.
Despite these catalysts, Bitfinex analysts note that long-term holder confidence remains strong. The recent sell-off, which saw Bitcoin price drop to $107,400 on September 1, was largely driven by newer investors. As long-term holders maintain their positions, Bitcoin price could see sustained support from this group, which could prevent further downside movement.
