TLDR
- Bitcoin’s price in gold terms is falling as gold hits new highs.
- Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $324k if the BTC/Gold ratio normalizes.
- Goldman Sachs forecasts gold at $5,400, boosting Bitcoin’s potential to $324k.
- Bitcoin ETF outflows and gold’s steady rise create uncertainty in Bitcoin’s future.
Bitcoin is currently underperforming gold, which is seeing a strong rally. This surge in gold prices is primarily driven by geopolitical uncertainty and rising real yields, pushing gold closer to its record highs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has remained stuck, trading in a narrow range around $89,800.
As a result, the BTC/Gold ratio, which compares Bitcoin to gold, has sharply fallen, signaling a significant deviation from its historical trend. This shift has led some analysts to predict a potential price snapback for Bitcoin, with some forecasts suggesting Bitcoin could reach as high as $324,000.
Gold Hits New Heights, Bitcoin Struggles
Gold has seen a remarkable rise, now nearing $4,900 per ounce. This increase is attributed to the growing demand from central banks and private investors, alongside the support of positive real yields.
Despite these factors, gold’s price continues to rise, even in a market where yields should theoretically hurt the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. This surprising strength has led to increased confidence in gold’s long-term position in the market.
In contrast, Bitcoin has been less responsive, remaining below $90,000. Although Bitcoin still holds value as a “digital gold,” it is not seeing the same momentum. This disparity between gold and Bitcoin prices has led analysts to point out that Bitcoin may be severely undervalued compared to its historical relationship with gold.
The BTC/Gold Ratio and Power Law Model
The BTC/Gold ratio tracks how much Bitcoin can buy in terms of gold. When Bitcoin underperforms against gold, this ratio declines. Currently, Bitcoin’s price in terms of gold is lower than what many analysts consider normal.
This has led to predictions of a potential “mean reversion,” which suggests that Bitcoin could quickly snap back to previous highs if the ratio normalizes. According to power law models, this mean reversion could drive Bitcoin prices significantly higher.
For instance, if the ratio were to climb to the middle of its historical range, Bitcoin’s price could rise to around $171,000. If the ratio were to move toward the higher end, Bitcoin could reach between $220,000 and $294,000. With some models factoring in Goldman Sachs’ gold forecast of $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, the potential price for Bitcoin could climb as high as $324,000.
Factors Driving the Divergence Between Gold and Bitcoin
One major factor influencing the discrepancy between Bitcoin and gold prices is the flow of investments into Bitcoin ETFs. After experiencing a series of outflows in January 2026, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively stagnant.
These withdrawals highlight the lack of stable institutional investment in Bitcoin at the moment. In contrast, gold continues to see strong demand, with large banks raising their gold price targets for the coming years.
As Bitcoin waits for new catalysts, gold continues to enjoy structural demand. This shift in investor sentiment has raised questions about Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim its narrative as the dominant “hard asset” of the decade.
