TLDR
- Saad Ahmed confirms Bitcoin’s emotional-driven cycle will likely continue.
- Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is influenced by human emotion, not just halving.
- Institutional involvement may stabilize volatility but won’t end the cycle.
- Bitcoin’s price surge reflects its cyclical nature driven by market emotions.
Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year cycle, often linked to halving events, is driven not only by market fundamentals but also by human emotions. Saad Ahmed, the head of the APAC region at crypto exchange Gemini, believes that this cycle will likely continue in some form. According to Ahmed, the market will still experience cyclical patterns, shaped significantly by emotional investor behaviors like greed and fear.
The Role of Human Emotion in Bitcoin’s Cycle
The four-year cycle of Bitcoin has been a well-recognized pattern, but its driving forces go beyond just economic fundamentals. As Saad Ahmed explained, the market is largely influenced by emotional responses from investors. In particular, the excitement and fear triggered by price movements often amplify trends.
For instance, during a bull market, many investors may rush in due to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), pushing the price even higher. Conversely, during a downturn, fear often leads to panic selling, exacerbating price drops.
While market cycles have typically mirrored Bitcoin’s halving events, Ahmed emphasizes that human behavior plays a crucial role. The repeated pattern of boom and bust is not solely due to supply and demand forces but is also the result of collective emotional reactions. According to the Gemini executive, the growing institutional involvement in cryptocurrency markets may help stabilize volatility but will not fully eliminate the cycles driven by human emotions.
Bitcoin Halving and Its Impact on the Cycle
Bitcoin’s halving events, which occur roughly every four years, reduce the mining reward by half, thus decreasing the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market. This reduction in supply is often followed by a surge in demand, pushing the price higher. Historically, Bitcoin’s price has seen significant increases following halving events, contributing to the four-year cycle.
As the cycle progresses, it moves through four key stages: accumulation, growth, peak, and correction. Each of these stages aligns with different phases of the halving cycle. However, Saad Ahmed suggests that the emotional aspect of the market adds a layer of complexity. While the halving impacts supply, it is the investor’s emotional reaction to these changes that ultimately drives price swings.
The Likely Continuation of the Cycle
The debate over whether the four-year cycle will continue remains active in the crypto space. While some analysts believe that Bitcoin’s price may not follow the same trajectory as in previous cycles, Ahmed remains confident that the cycle will persist, albeit with possible variations. He acknowledged that the market has evolved with greater institutional participation, which could reduce volatility. However, emotional factors will likely still play a role in the market’s behavior.
Despite changes in the market, analysts such as Saad Ahmed and others argue that understanding Bitcoin’s emotional and cyclical nature will remain beneficial for investors. Recognizing when the market is overly optimistic or overly fearful can offer clues on when to enter or exit positions. Bitcoin’s price movements will continue to follow emotional patterns, even if these patterns are influenced by more sophisticated market participants over time.
Market Outlook and the Current Cycle
As of October 2025, Bitcoin has been exhibiting strong growth, and many believe that it is approaching the peak of its current cycle. The surge in Bitcoin’s price over the past few weeks is consistent with patterns seen in previous cycles. The upcoming months will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin’s price continues to follow the historical pattern of reaching a peak and then correcting.
While the four-year cycle remains central to Bitcoin’s long-term price movement, experts caution that every cycle can differ. The increasing institutional interest in Bitcoin may lead to fewer sharp market fluctuations, but human emotional reactions are unlikely to fade completely. Therefore, the cycle will likely continue in some form, with emotional responses driving much of the price movement.
In summary, while Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may evolve as institutional influence grows, it remains largely shaped by human emotions. Investors should be mindful of how emotional responses to market conditions can influence price changes, helping them make more informed decisions in the ever-volatile crypto market.
