TLDR
- Bitwise and GraniteShares launch prediction ETFs for U.S. elections.
- Prediction ETFs by Bitwise and GraniteShares target 2028 U.S. elections.
- Political betting meets ETFs: Bitwise and GraniteShares propose new funds.
- New ETFs will allow investors to bet on U.S. election outcomes.
- Bitwise and GraniteShares join growing trend of political prediction ETFs.
Bitwise and GraniteShares have filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch prediction ETFs tied to U.S. elections. The funds aim to provide investors with exposure to political outcomes. The filings focus on event contracts based on future U.S. elections, including the 2028 presidential race and the 2026 congressional midterm elections.
Bitwise’s PredictionShares ETFs
Bitwise has proposed a series of six prediction ETFs under the brand name PredictionShares. These funds will track outcomes for the 2028 U.S. presidential election, as well as the 2026 Senate and House elections. Each fund will focus on either the Democratic or Republican party’s chances in these elections.
The ETFs will use binary event contracts, which pay $1 for a correct outcome and $0 for an incorrect one. Bitwise aims to provide a platform for traditional brokerage accounts to access political prediction markets. These contracts will be traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges, allowing for regulated exposure to political betting.
The goal of the PredictionShares ETFs is to allow investors to speculate on the results of key U.S. elections. According to the filing, the funds will lose substantial value if the predicted outcome does not occur. Bitwise sees the growing interest in political prediction markets as an opportunity to expand their ETF offerings.
GraniteShares Enters the Market
GraniteShares also filed a similar proposal for six political prediction ETFs. These funds are designed with the same structure as Bitwise’s offering. The funds will also focus on the 2028 U.S. presidential election and the 2026 congressional elections.
GraniteShares aims to give investors a way to invest in political outcomes through a regulated, traditional financial product. The prediction ETFs will also use binary event contracts, with payouts based on the results of these key elections. Like Bitwise, GraniteShares is positioning itself as part of a growing trend in the financialization of political betting.
The filing follows other recent efforts by asset managers to enter the political prediction market. GraniteShares sees an opportunity to compete with other firms offering similar products, such as Roundhill Investments, which also filed for prediction ETFs earlier this year.
The Growing Market for Political Prediction ETFs
The market for political prediction ETFs has expanded in recent years, with growing interest from investors. These products allow people to bet on the outcome of elections in a regulated manner. As more firms, including Bitwise and GraniteShares, enter this space, competition is expected to increase.
The SEC has not yet approved these ETFs, and the approval process is ongoing. However, as the popularity of prediction markets grows, experts anticipate that more firms will file for similar products. The U.S. political scene continues to offer new opportunities for prediction markets, with the 2028 elections at the forefront of these developments.
Both Bitwise and GraniteShares are tapping into the $63 billion market sector. Their filings reflect the increasing interest in prediction ETFs and the expanding role of political betting in the financial market. As the market for these products matures, more prediction ETFs will likely emerge in the coming months.
