TLDR
- Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson warns that implementing post-quantum cryptography now would reduce blockchain throughput by 90% due to slower processing and larger proof sizes.
- Post-quantum cryptographic standards already exist from NIST as of 2024, but the timing of implementation remains the key challenge for blockchain networks.
- DARPA has set 2033 as a target year to determine if utility-scale quantum computing is feasible through its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative.
- The industry faces a choice between two post-quantum approaches: hash-based cryptography (Ethereum’s direction) and lattice-based cryptography (Cardano’s preference).
- Hoskinson suggests a staged mitigation approach using post-quantum-signed checkpoints rather than immediate protocol-wide changes to address the quantum threat.
Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, has outlined the challenges blockchain networks face in preparing for potential quantum computer attacks. He says the main issue is not what changes to make but when to make them.
Charles Hoskinson said post-quantum cryptography was standardized in 2024 by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, but warned that without hardware acceleration it could reduce blockchain performance by roughly an order of magnitude. He added that the key issue is…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) December 21, 2025
The cryptographic tools needed to protect blockchains from quantum threats already exist. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology released post-quantum standards in 2024.
However, Hoskinson warns that implementing these protocols too early could harm blockchain performance. Post-quantum cryptography is about 10 times slower and creates proof sizes that are 10 times larger.
“If you adopt it, what you’re basically doing is taking the throughput of your blockchain and reducing it by cutting off a zero,” Hoskinson told Decrypt. This means blockchains could lose 90% of their current processing capacity.
The debate over quantum threats centers on timing. Researchers agree that powerful quantum computers could eventually break current cryptographic systems.
Estimates for when this threat becomes real vary widely. Some predictions suggest a few years while others point to more than a decade away.
No, quantum computers won't break Bitcoin in the near future. We'll keep observing their evolution.
Yet, making thoughtful changes to the protocol (and an unprecedented migration of funds) could easily take 5 to 10 years.
We should hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
— Jameson Lopp (@lopp) December 21, 2025
Hoskinson recommends following DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative instead of corporate timelines. The initiative tests whether different quantum computing approaches can deliver useful results.
DARPA has set 2033 as the target year for determining if utility-scale quantum computing is feasible. Hoskinson called this “the best independent, objective benchmark” for tracking quantum computer development.
Current Cryptography Vulnerabilities
Most major blockchain networks use elliptic-curve cryptography. This includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano.
Shor’s algorithm could theoretically break this cryptography if powerful enough quantum computers emerge. The industry already knows how to address this vulnerability.
Two Competing Approaches
The blockchain industry faces a choice between two post-quantum cryptographic methods. Hash-based cryptography uses cryptographic hash functions to create digital signatures that resist quantum attacks.
These systems are simple and well-studied. However, they work mainly for signing data and cannot handle general-purpose encryption.
Ethereum is pursuing the hash-based approach. Lattice-based cryptography relies on difficult mathematical problems that should remain secure against quantum computers.
Cardano plans to use lattice-based methods. This approach supports digital signatures, encryption, and other advanced cryptographic tools.
Hoskinson said lattice cryptography can run on graphics cards like AI operations. This means networks can reuse existing AI computer infrastructure worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
Staged Implementation Strategy
Hoskinson did not call for immediate protocol-wide changes. He described a staged mitigation approach as a better option.
One possibility involves creating post-quantum-signed checkpoints of Cardano’s ledger history. This could use systems like Mithril and the Midnight sidechain.
“There are always trade-offs with these systems,” Hoskinson said. He noted that fundamental decisions about finality cannot be reversed once made.
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