TLDR
- CCL stock rose 1.50% to $25.09 on Tuesday, its third straight day of gains
- The stock is down ~26% since Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude above $100/barrel
- Stifel analyst Steven Wieczynski cut his price target from $40 to $35 but kept a Buy rating
- Carnival still expects double-digit earnings growth in 2026 and adjusted net income of ~$3.45 billion
- The stock trades at 12.3x trailing earnings, sitting 26% below its 52-week high of $34.03
Carnival Corporation (CCL) stock has had a rough few weeks. Middle East tensions sent oil prices surging, and the market has taken it out on the cruise giant — knocking roughly a quarter off its value since the conflict involving Iran escalated.
Carnival Corporation & plc, CCL
Still, Tuesday brought a bit of calm. CCL climbed 1.50% to $25.09, marking three consecutive days of gains. That said, the stock remains 26.27% below its 52-week high of $34.03, hit on February 6th.
Trading volume came in at 20.7 million — about 2.2 million below the 50-day average of 22.9 million, suggesting buyers haven’t fully returned yet.
The broader market had a solid session. The S&P 500 rose 0.25% to 6,716.09, and the Dow gained 0.10% to close at 46,993.26. Competitor Walt Disney rose 1.66% to $100.30, while Royal Caribbean fell 1.04% to $277.90.
Fuel is one of Carnival’s biggest cost variables. The company itself has noted that a 10% change in fuel costs translates to roughly a $145 million swing in net income. With Brent crossing $100 per barrel — up from below $60 late last year — that’s a real headwind.
But the math still works in Carnival’s favor, at least on paper. Even with a sustained 30% fuel cost increase factored in, the company is still expected to generate around $3 billion in adjusted net income — roughly in line with 2025 levels.
Analyst Takes Note
On March 11, Stifel analyst Steven Wieczynski trimmed his price target on CCL from $40 to $35. He kept his Buy rating intact.
Wieczynski acknowledged that investor sentiment around cruises has shifted fast — from confident to shaky. He said expectations for the upcoming earnings report and guidance have been lowered. He attributed the revised target to geopolitical tensions and the knock-on effect of rising fuel prices.
At the same time, he was clear that the industry’s underlying fundamentals haven’t changed.
Carnival heads into Fiscal Q1 earnings later this month. The company has guided for 2026 net yields to rise 2.5% — or 3% on a normalized basis. It also expects double-digit earnings growth and adjusted return on invested capital above 13.5%.
That would mark the fourth straight year of low- to mid-single-digit per-diem growth.
Selloff or Setup?
The stock currently trades at 12.3x trailing earnings. That’s a level last seen around last April’s Liberation Day dip.
For context, the selloff doesn’t appear to be tied to weakening bookings or operational issues. Full-year 2025 figures showed net yields up 5.6% versus 2024. Demand signals have held up.
The drop is being driven by macro fears — oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and general risk-off sentiment toward cyclical names.
Stifel’s Wieczynski noted that investors won’t re-engage with the cruise sector until the geopolitical backdrop settles down, regardless of what the fundamentals say.
Carnival’s Fiscal Q1 earnings report, due later this month, will give the clearest picture yet of where booking trends and margins actually stand heading into the key summer season.
Considering a new stock? You may want to see what’s on our watchlist first.
Our team at Knockout Stocks follows top-performing analysts and market-moving trends to spot potential winners early. We’ve identified five stocks gaining quiet attention that could be worth watching now. Create your free account to unlock the full report and get ongoing stock insights.Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
