TLDR
- ARK Invest values SpaceX at $1.75 trillion, citing Starlink, lower launch costs, and an emerging orbital economy
- Starlink has over 10 million users and is expected to generate more than $20 billion in revenue this year
- SpaceX has cut launch costs by roughly 95% since 2008 through reusable rocket technology
- SpaceX is reportedly targeting a NASDAQ IPO in June 2026, aiming to raise around $75 billion
- About 30% of shares may be reserved for retail investors, making it more accessible to the public
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest released a report on April 21 placing a $1.75 trillion valuation on SpaceX ahead of a possible public listing. The report outlines three main reasons ARK believes SpaceX is worth that figure.
The first is Starlink. The satellite internet service now has more than 10 million users. ARK expects it to bring in over $20 billion in revenue this year alone.
The second is launch costs. SpaceX has cut the cost of getting to space by roughly 95% since 2008. That reduction comes from its reusable rocket technology, which allows the company to fly hardware multiple times.
The third is what ARK calls the “orbital economy.” This refers to future industries that could operate in space, including data centers and manufacturing facilities in orbit.
ARK frames SpaceX not as a traditional aerospace company but as infrastructure for a future space-based economy. The firm compares the company’s role to that of foundational players in communications and logistics.
Starlink as the Revenue Engine
Starlink is central to ARK’s valuation case. The network provides global broadband from orbit, and ARK argues that continued expansion could unlock large-scale commercial demand.
The firm says declining launch costs will make it cheaper for industries to operate in space, opening new markets that don’t yet exist.
ARK acknowledged the valuation is forward-looking. A large part of it depends on SpaceX executing on Starship cost targets and scaling Starlink further.
SpaceX Eyes the NASDAQ
SpaceX is reportedly planning an IPO on the NASDAQ in June 2026. The company is said to be targeting around $75 billion in the raise, which would make it the largest IPO in history.
Reports indicate SpaceX may set aside roughly 30% of its shares for retail investors. That would give everyday investors a chance to buy in at the listing.
ARK Invest’s report appears timed to build a public valuation framework ahead of that listing.
SpaceX has also secured an option to acquire AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion. The company plans to pair Cursor’s tools with its “Colossus” supercomputer to develop advanced software.
That move places SpaceX in direct competition with AI companies like OpenAI.
Cathie Wood made no major trades in ARK’s ETFs on April 21, the same day the SpaceX report was published.
On Wall Street, Tesla holds a Hold consensus rating with 13 Buys, 11 Holds, and 7 Sells over the past three months. The average price target for Tesla shares stands at $395.31.
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