TLDR
- Cava Group stock jumped over 21% after Q4 2025 earnings beat Wall Street expectations
- Q4 revenue hit $272.8–$275 million, up 21.2% year-over-year, with EPS of $0.04 beating estimates
- Comparable sales grew just 0.5% in Q4, with guest traffic down 1.4%, but 2026 guidance calls for 3–5% growth
- Bernstein raised its price target to $84, while UBS, Needham, TD Cowen, and Telsey also lifted their targets
- The loyalty program now accounts for roughly one-third of sales, and catering is being tested in Houston with expansion planned
Cava Group had a rough 12 months heading into Tuesday’s earnings report. The stock had dropped 32% over the prior year, weighed down by choppy same-store sales and softer consumer traffic.
Then came the Q4 numbers.
Revenue for the quarter ended December came in at $272.8–$275 million, up 21.2% from a year ago. That topped Wall Street’s consensus estimate of around $268 million.
Adjusted EPS landed at $0.04, beating the expected $0.00–$0.03, though it dipped slightly from $0.05 in the same quarter last year.
Comparable sales grew just 0.5% — the weakest print since Cava went public in 2023. Guest traffic fell 1.4% year-over-year, with higher menu prices doing much of the work to keep that comp positive.
Despite the weak traffic number, investors focused on what’s ahead. Cava guided for comparable sales growth of 3% to 5% in 2026, which came in stronger than many on Wall Street had modeled.
The stock responded sharply, rising more than 21% on Wednesday.
Analyst Reactions
J.P. Morgan analyst John Ivankoe said Q4 results appear to have “bottomed,” maintaining an Overweight rating. He described Cava as “an economically advantaged business model with high-potential for full national penetration.”
Bernstein raised its price target to $84 from $75, keeping an Outperform rating. The firm pointed to brand awareness growth, loyalty engagement, menu innovation, and operational improvements as long-term drivers.
UBS lifted its target to $75. Needham and TD Cowen both moved to $90. Telsey Advisory Group raised its target to $88, citing Cava’s plan to expand to over 1,000 restaurants by 2032.
Management also noted that consumer demand held up across income levels, even with some weather-related disruptions during the quarter.
Loyalty and Catering in Focus
Cava’s loyalty program now drives roughly one-third of total sales, with early signs of improved visit frequency. A new tier called OASIS is being developed to deepen engagement as the program scales.
Catering is another growth area getting attention. Testing is ongoing in Houston, with a second market set to launch this year and a broader rollout expected in fiscal 2027.
Bernstein’s analyst said catering represents “a meaningful, incremental channel that is not yet contemplated in numbers.”
Over the past 12 months, Cava has delivered revenue growth of 23.9%. The company has a market cap of around $7.86 billion and trades at a P/E ratio of 46.44, though some analysts flag the stock as overvalued relative to fair value estimates.
Store expansion remained a key part of the Q4 update, with new restaurant openings during the quarter and continued growth planned going forward. Cava is targeting more than 1,000 locations by 2032.
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