TLDR
- Clear Street upgraded CRCL from Hold to Buy, raising its price target to $136 from $92
- USDC circulation has hit an all-time high of $79 billion, recovering from a dip to $70 billion in January
- Five growth catalysts cited: tokenized funds, prediction markets, Middle East conflict demand, agentic AI, and stablecoin legislation
- CRCL is up 46% year-to-date but still sits 56% below its June 2025 peak of $264
- The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is expected to pass by end of summer, potentially unlocking more institutional flows
Circle Internet Group stock jumped 7.5% to $123.98 on Monday after Clear Street upgraded the stablecoin company to Buy and raised its price target to $136 from $92.
The move puts CRCL on pace for its highest close since last October, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Clear Street analyst Owen Lau cited five specific drivers behind the call, all tied to growing real-world demand for USDC rather than speculative crypto activity.
USDC’s circulation has climbed back to an all-time high of $79 billion after dipping to around $70 billion at the end of January. That recovery happened even as broader crypto markets fell roughly 44% from their October 2025 highs.
“USDC market capitalization continued to trend higher, even as broader equity and crypto markets declined, suggesting demand was driven by transactional utility rather than speculative positioning,” Lau wrote.
One driver of that demand is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. With banking and exchanges disrupted across the region, people have turned to USDC for remittances and cross-border payments — a core use case the stablecoin was built for.
Tokenized Funds and Prediction Markets
Financial institutions are increasingly tokenizing funds — digitizing them to trade on blockchain ledgers — and USDC has emerged as a preferred settlement currency thanks to its regulatory compliance and broad compatibility.
Prediction markets are adding to that picture. Polymarket, which handled $22 billion in trades last year and is expected to expand into the U.S., settles its trades in USDC. More volume on those platforms means more USDC in circulation.
Agentic AI is the longer-term bet. The idea is that AI agents will eventually complete tasks — booking travel, signing contracts, making purchases — without human input. Those transactions need digital wallets with round-the-clock settlement. Circle is building its Arc blockchain protocol specifically to serve that infrastructure.
“A central misperception among investors is conflating the fortunes of speculative crypto assets with the adoption trajectory of payment stablecoins,” Lau wrote. “These are structurally distinct.”
Regulatory Catalyst on the Horizon
Clear Street also sees a regulatory tailwind coming. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is currently being negotiated, with the main sticking point being whether stablecoin holders can earn yield on their deposits.
With President Trump pushing stakeholders toward a compromise, Clear Street expects the Clarity Act to pass by end of summer. The firm believes that would unlock meaningful institutional flows into digital assets.
“Our conversations with institutional allocators consistently highlight regulatory uncertainty as the primary barrier to increasing crypto exposure,” Lau said.
The $136 price target is based on 30x EV/EBITDA on a fiscal 2028 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $1.132 billion, plus $2.3 billion in net cash.
CRCL fell from a peak of $264 in June 2025 to near $50 in February 2026 — an 81% drawdown — before rebounding more than 100%. The stock is up 45.5% year-to-date and was trading at $123.98 as of Monday.
Other analysts remain constructive. Bernstein SocGen reiterated an Outperform rating, while Mizuho raised its target to $120, noting USDC’s volume had surpassed rival stablecoin USDT for the first time since 2018.
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