TLDR
- Shares of Coinbase, Gemini, and Bullish have dropped by as much as 55 percent over the past three months.
- Bitcoin has declined over 35 percent since its October peak with January marking its fourth straight monthly loss.
- Coinbase’s Q4 trading volume likely fell 40 percent year-on-year to $264 billion, according to analyst Owen Lau.
- Gemini is now expected to break even in 2028 instead of 2027 due to falling trading activity.
- Bullish saw a 28 percent decline in January trading volumes compared to the same period last year.
Trading volumes have dried up across major cryptocurrency exchanges, dragging shares of Coinbase, Gemini, and Bullish down sharply over three months. While Bitcoin’s price has fallen over 35% since October, shares of these platforms have dropped by as much as 55%, reflecting shrinking activity. With no hacks or scandals to blame, the current downturn is marked by silence and falling user interest.
Coinbase Struggles as Retail Traders Disappear
Coinbase shares have declined heavily as trading activity on the platform continues to fall throughout the fourth quarter and January. According to Clear Street analyst Owen Lau, Coinbase’s Q4 trading volume likely dropped 40% year-on-year to $264 billion. He also stated January’s figures were worse, with trading on track to bring in less than half of last year’s numbers.
This downturn is weighing on Coinbase’s core revenue model, which relies on trading fees from active users. As users stop buying and selling, fee generation has slowed sharply, weakening earnings. “When prices are going up, people don’t want to miss out, so they trade,” said Peter Christiansen of Citigroup.
Despite Bitcoin ETFs and platform upgrades, users are withdrawing from trading, seeking alternative opportunities. Some have shifted interest to AI tokens, sports betting, or small-cap stocks, reducing traffic on major exchanges. While Coinbase has explored services like custody and equities, its business model still depends on active crypto traders.
Gemini Faces Delays to Break-Even Goals
Gemini’s financial roadmap is under pressure, as declining volumes push its profitability timeline further out. John Todaro at Needham & Co. said Gemini had planned to break even by 2027 but now sees that happening in 2028. He cited reduced activity and lower platform engagement as key issues impacting progress.
Retail activity on Gemini has dropped without major incidents, leaving fewer opportunities to earn transaction-based revenue. The platform is now navigating a trading environment where user engagement is minimal. The slowdown has cut off the momentum seen earlier from retail investors during past bull cycles.
Despite building additional services, Gemini remains dependent on trader participation, which has thinned over the past several months. The absence of strong catalysts has deepened the challenge of maintaining volume. The firm is now operating in a market cycle defined more by apathy than crisis.
Bullish Sees Institutional Slowdown Continue
Bullish, which serves mostly institutional clients, has also experienced a downturn in exchange activity compared to last year. Lau reported a 28% drop in January trading volumes on Bullish, year-over-year. The decline suggests that even larger market participants are hesitating to re-engage.
The institutional space is showing caution, with clients stepping away from risk, including crypto. War headlines, AI costs, and tech losses have made investors more defensive. This has affected platforms like Bullish, which rely on steady inflows and regular trades from institutions.
Kaiko’s Laurens Fraussen stated the cycle may only be about 25% complete and could stretch another six to nine months. He believes the trading pullback could extend further before showing signs of recovery. Meanwhile, crypto stock declines are beginning to mirror past market bottoms.
A meeting between the crypto industry and the banking sector is scheduled for later Monday at the White House. The discussion will focus on resolving the Senate’s market-structure bill.
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