TLDR
- Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $3.4 million per coin by 2028 based on U.S. fiscal policies.
- Hayes assumes a $2 trillion U.S. deficit each year until 2028, which would lead to massive credit growth.
- He expects the Federal Reserve to buy half of all new debt issuance, resulting in significant money printing.
- Hayes uses Bitcoin’s response to COVID-19 stimulus to model its potential price surge.
- Despite the bold prediction, Hayes suggests Bitcoin will be much higher than its current price of $115K by 2028.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has presented an aggressive forecast for Bitcoin. In his latest blog post, Hayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $3.4 million per coin by 2028. This estimate is based on expectations of continued U.S. fiscal and monetary policies under President Donald Trump. Hayes believes these policies will flood the market with fresh credit, driving Bitcoin’s price higher.
Arthur Hayes Assumes Large U.S. Deficits Through 2028
Arthur Hayes expects the U.S. government to run a $2 trillion deficit annually until 2028. This deficit, he argues, will require the U.S. Treasury to issue more debt. Hayes predicts that foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries, especially from China and Japan, will decline. As a result, he expects the Federal Reserve to step in, purchasing about half of all new debt issuance. Hayes sees this as a form of massive money printing, which he believes will boost Bitcoin’s price.
The BitMEX co-founder points to Bitcoin’s response to stimulus during the COVID-19 era as precedent. According to Hayes, Bitcoin appreciated by 0.19% for every dollar of credit growth. Extrapolating this pattern, Hayes forecasts a $3.4 million price per Bitcoin by 2028. He acknowledges that this estimate is speculative, but says it is rooted in historical trends.
Bitcoin’s Market Cap and Potential Growth
If Bitcoin reaches $3.4 million, its market capitalization could surpass $71 trillion. This would make it a major asset class, though still below the current global debt burden of $251 trillion. At a $1 million price point, Bitcoin’s market cap would reach around $21 trillion, still less than gold’s $25.6 trillion valuation.
Despite the ambitious projection, Hayes tempers his expectations. He believes Bitcoin will certainly be much higher than its current price of $115K by 2028. Hayes also suggests that the true floor for Bitcoin could be closer to $1 million per coin by then.
