TLDR
- CrowdStrike stock is down 22% from its record high, currently trading at $388.20
- Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings are due March 3, with revenue expected around $1.3 billion
- Falcon Flex ARR hit $1.35 billion in Q3, up 200% year over year
- Barclays cut its price target to $550 from $610, but kept an Overweight rating
- The stock trades at 23.4x revenue, well above rival Palo Alto Networks at 12.3x
CrowdStrike (CRWD) has dropped 22% from its all-time high, sitting at $388.20 as of February 20. With earnings coming on March 3, investors are weighing whether the dip is a buying opportunity or a valuation warning.
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., CRWD
The company’s Falcon platform continues to pull in strong numbers. In Q3 fiscal 2026, ending October 31, CrowdStrike posted $1.23 billion in revenue — a 22% year-over-year increase. That marked the second straight quarter of accelerating growth.
Management guided Q4 revenue at roughly $1.3 billion, which would push full-year fiscal 2026 revenue to a record $4.8 billion.
Falcon Flex, the flexible subscription product launched in 2023, has been a standout. It generated $1.35 billion in annual recurring revenue in Q3, up 200% year over year. Customers clearly like the ability to add or remove modules without renegotiating contracts.
CrowdStrike Eyes AI-Driven Threats
In August 2024, CrowdStrike launched Falcon Next-Gen Identity Security to address risks from AI agents. These agents often lack their own credentials, creating security gaps that hackers can exploit.
The product uses a “zero standing privileges” model, revoking access to sensitive systems when it’s no longer needed — for both human and digital identities.
CrowdStrike has set a long-term target of $20 billion in ARR by fiscal 2036, up from current levels, banking on agentic AI driving a surge in cybersecurity demand.
Valuation Still a Sticking Point
Even after the 22% pullback, CRWD trades at 23.4x revenue. That’s nearly double the multiple of its closest rival, Palo Alto Networks, which trades at 12.3x revenue.
Barclays trimmed its price target on February 20 to $550 from $610, though it kept an Overweight rating. The firm is modeling $300 million in net new ARR for Q4, with an upside scenario of $330 million.
The stock’s market cap currently sits at $98 billion. Its 52-week range runs from $298 to $566.90.
For short-term investors, the premium valuation is hard to justify even with a potentially strong Q4 print. For those with a longer horizon, the March 3 report will be the next key data point to watch.
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