TLDR
- CryptoQuant CEO declares Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory outdated amid rising institutional ownership and reduced retail influence.
- Bitcoin hits $123K, breaking past historical patterns as legacy whales sell to pension funds and corporate treasuries.
- Ju cites a shift in Bitcoin market behavior, driven by long-term institutional holders replacing short-term speculative traders.
- Ethereum staking exceeds 519K ETH, showing broader institutional commitment and signaling a maturing crypto market.
- Global policy hurdles remain as South Korea blocks ETF expansion and U.S. regulators face pressure on tokenized asset rules.
Bitcoin’s recent rally has challenged long-standing assumptions, as market dynamics shift under the weight of institutional capital. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, after misjudging April’s peak, now dismisses the four-year cycle theory. He points to new data showing a fundamental change in how Bitcoin behaves, especially during price surges.
Whale accumulation and distribution patterns have changed, altering the historical rhythm of market highs and lows. Ju’s revised view follows Bitcoin reaching a record $123,236 in July, surpassing expectations. He attributes the continued rally to growing demand from institutions rather than retail trading cycles.
Institutional buying power continues to reshape market flows, replacing short-term retail-driven speculation with longer-term holding trends. This shift suggests a more stable base of ownership, limiting the impact of panic selling. Ju believes this structure undermines the typical boom-bust rhythm of the Bitcoin cycle theory.
#Bitcoin cycle theory is dead.
My predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds.
Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we…
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) July 24, 2025
Bitcoin’s Structure Shift Challenges Old Patterns
Bitcoin’s traditional price cycles relied on whales buying during downturns and selling in retail-driven upswings. However, Ju explains that legacy whales are now transferring holdings to long-term entities like pension funds and corporate treasuries. This reduces short-term liquidity and changes the dynamics of supply and demand.
Institutional accumulation has supported Bitcoin’s resilience, even when previous cycle signals indicated a downturn. As prices climbed above earlier peaks, the usual cycle failed to trigger expected selling pressure. Bitcoin’s strength in 2025 reflects this evolving ownership profile.
Current on-chain metrics support the breakdown of previous cycle patterns, reinforcing Ju’s updated stance. Bitcoin now reacts less to halving events and more to external economic and policy conditions. This shift could mark the beginning of a more mature phase for digital assets.
Ethereum Growth Reflects Broader Institutional Momentum
Ethereum activity further highlights the changing landscape of crypto investment. Over 519,000 ETH have entered staking queues since January 2024, locking nearly $2 billion from market circulation. This signals increasing institutional confidence and interest in long-term engagement.
Upcoming Ethereum ETF proposals from Fidelity and WisdomTree signal more integration into traditional markets. These moves could accelerate adoption while reducing market volatility. Ethereum’s ecosystem continues to grow alongside macroeconomic interest.
