TLDR
- Bitcoin has failed to break $73,000 three times since the ceasefire, pulling back to $71,843 on Friday
- Analysts say Bitcoin needs to clear $75,000, then consolidate above $74,000 before targeting $80,000
- Ether, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin are all up on the week but remain range-bound
- US stock futures slipped around 0.1% Friday as peace talks remain uncertain
- Iran accused the US of breaching the ceasefire; the Strait of Hormuz remains only partially open
Bitcoin is trading in a tight range and struggling to push higher, while stock futures edged lower Friday morning as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran continue to weigh on markets.
Bitcoin pulled back to $71,843 on Friday after sellers stepped in for the third time at $73,000. That level has now rejected every rally since the Iran conflict began in late February.
Despite the rejection, Bitcoin posted its strongest weekly gain of the war, up 7.9% on the week. It is also holding above its 50-day moving average, which has turned upward for the first time since the conflict started.
Ether held at $2,189, up 6.6% for the week. Solana gained 5.1% to $83.09. XRP added 2.8% to $1.34. Dogecoin climbed 2.4% to $0.092. The entire top 10 was green on the weekly chart for the first time in over a month.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said Bitcoin needs to rise above $75,000 before the market can be considered in an active bullish phase.
He described the $73,000 level as a clear barrier and said holding above the 50-day moving average supports short-term bullish sentiment, but that barrier still needs to break.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz set the bar higher. He said Bitcoin needs to consolidate above $74,000 and then break $80,000 to restore the uptrend.
Ceasefire Under Pressure
The ceasefire announced Tuesday, which triggered a broad crypto rally, is already showing cracks. Iran accused the US of breaching three clauses of the agreement.
PRESIDENT TRUMP:
“There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!” pic.twitter.com/AE18nX5M7i
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 9, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz remains only partially open due to technical limitations. Oil rebounded from a 15% single-day crash and is trading back above $97.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to begin negotiations with Lebanon, but Israel’s official position stated: “There is no ceasefire in Lebanon.”
Peace talks are scheduled for this weekend after senior White House officials asked Israel to scale back strikes on Lebanon.
Stock Futures Edge Lower
US stock futures slipped around 0.1% Friday. Futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all edged down slightly.
Thursday’s session on Wall Street was stronger. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Nasdaq climbed 0.8%, and the Dow added nearly 276 points, pushing it into positive territory for 2026.
Investors are now watching the weekend peace talks closely. Markets are also watching the March consumer price index, with economists expecting inflation to rise 0.9% month over month and 3.3% year over year.
Outside of major crypto tokens, Algorand dropped 11.4%, Aptos fell 6.1%, and Polkadot lost 6.1%.
The Fear and Greed Index climbed out of single digits for the first time in over a month.
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