TLDR
- Wedbush’s Dan Ives called Palantir his top software pick outside the Magnificent Seven, describing its Q4 results as “stunning”
- Ives said the AI revolution is only in its “third inning,” with massive U.S. government contracts potentially reaching into the trillions
- A ~$20M revenue shift from commercial to government skewed Palantir’s commercial numbers, but Ives dismissed it as a one-off
- PLTR is down more than 17% in 2026, but trades below its five-year average on several metrics, with a forward P/E of 132x
- Wall Street consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with a mean price target of $195.04, implying ~32% upside from current levels
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives went on CNBC and didn’t hold back. He called Palantir his favourite software stock outside the Magnificent Seven and said the broader AI trade still has a long runway ahead.
Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR
Ives used the baseball analogy — “third inning” — to push back on bubble concerns that have been circulating in the market. His view: the AI cycle is accelerating, not topping out.
PLTR is trading down more than 17% in 2026. Despite that, Ives described the company’s most recent quarterly results as “stunning” and said Palantir sits in “a whole other category” compared to other software firms.
The stock has pulled back from stretched valuations, and it now trades below its five-year average on several metrics. That said, a forward P/E of 132x is still a premium price tag.
Palantir’s Q4 fiscal 2025 revenue came in at $1.41 billion — up 70% year-over-year. U.S. revenue hit $1.08 billion, growing 93% from the same period last year.
Full-year 2025 revenue reached $4.475 billion, up 56% year-over-year. GAAP EPS for Q4 was $0.24, and full-year GAAP EPS came in at $0.63.
What About the Commercial Miss?
One knock on Palantir’s last quarter was commercial revenue coming in softer than expected. Ives explained it away quickly — around $20 million moved from commercial to government in a single deal reclassification.
He framed it as a bookkeeping shift, not a signal of weakness. Government AI demand, in his view, is the story investors should be watching.
Ives called U.S. government AI spending “the golden goose.” He said contracts could reach hundreds of billions, with longer-term potential running into the trillions.
“For a lot of these software companies, government business could double over the next two or three years,” Ives said on CNBC.
Cybersecurity and the Agentic AI Wave
Ives also flagged cybersecurity as a key beneficiary of the AI buildout. He said security budgets could rise 50% as agentic AI introduces more complex threat surfaces.
He described it as “the most connected trade” he had seen — meaning the AI infrastructure wave and the security spend that has to follow it are tightly linked.
On regulation, Ives was skeptical that oversight would meaningfully slow the industry. He said technological change was moving faster than any regulatory framework could keep up with.
Palantir’s forward guidance pointed to Q1 2026 revenue of $1.532–$1.536 billion. Full-year 2026 revenue is expected in the range of $7.182–$7.198 billion.
U.S. commercial revenue alone is projected to top $3.144 billion for the full year.
Rosenblatt Securities reaffirmed a Buy rating on PLTR with a $200 price target on April 24. Mizuho kept its Outperform rating but trimmed its target from $195 to $185.
Based on 28 analysts, the consensus is “Moderate Buy” with a mean price target of $195.04 — roughly 32% above current trading levels.
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